Executive Summary

North Dakota State’s first season in the Football Bowl Subdivision reframes the question of what lower-division programs can do immediately when they move up. Three conditions made the Bison’s leap workable. They had a football-only conference path. They were willing to absorb a large one-time fee and a large recurring budget increase. And in the summer of 2026 the NCAA changed its rules so that transitioning programs no longer sit out the postseason. That rule change matters most for this analysis. Under the old regime, a “bowl-eligible” newcomer was a contradiction in terms. Under the new one, a ready FCS program can compete for a bowl in its first FBS year.

This paper identifies Montana State, South Dakota State, and Montana as the FCS programs most able to repeat North Dakota State’s leap. UC Davis and a small second tier follow. On the Group of Six side, it identifies USF, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, and James Madison as the strongest candidates for promotion into a power conference. The likeliest openings would come from an ACC fracture, which the current legislative and contractual calendar makes increasingly plausible toward the end of this decade.

I. The North Dakota State Precedent

The cost of the move

North Dakota State’s move was neither cheap nor painless. NDSU must pay a $5 million reclassification fee to the NCAA and a $12.5 million entry fee to the Mountain West, athletic director Matt Larsen confirmed. The structure of the entry fee helps explain how a school of NDSU’s size could manage it: it included a $7 million first payment due on or before July 1 with $1.1 million annual payments over the next five years.

The recurring cost is larger than the entry fees. In FY24, North Dakota State reported $30,251,922 in total athletic department operational expenses, far below the smallest Mountain West institution, San Jose State ($47,405,380). Analysts following the move estimated that the athletic budget increases would need to be in the $15ish million a year range in order to be competitive in a new league. NDSU also committed to roster growth: with additional fundraising, it plans to add 22 scholarships for football.

The structural advantage

North Dakota State could move football alone. Its other sports could stay where they were. NDSU will stay in the Summit League (with other Dakota and Midwest schools). Observers in Montana noted the significance: one circumstance benefiting North Dakota State in its move to the Mountain West is the fact that the football team competed in a football-only conference: the Missouri Valley. A program whose football conference is separate from its all-sports conference can leave for football without breaking up the rest of its athletic department. That point recurs throughout the FCS analysis below.

The rule change that made “immediate” possible

The decisive regulatory event came in June. North Dakota State and Sacramento State can now compete for bowl games in their debut FBS seasons after the NCAA Division I Cabinet voted to eliminate the two-year postseason transition penalty. This meant that the Bison would not have to wait until the end of the NCAA-mandated two year probation period to play in events such as bowl games, the Mountain West championship game, and the College Football Playoff. Before this change, programs such as James Madison suffered under the penalty. Despite winning the 2022 Sun Belt East Division title, James Madison was the most recent team kept from a bowl during the transition process; it filed a waiver to become eligible, but the NCAA denied it.

The competitive result

The Bison’s 7–2 record places them among the best teams in the Group of Six. The program entered with an exceptional foundation: since 2011, North Dakota State has amassed a 198-22 record while winning 10 of the last 15 nationals. In current composite rankings of non-power programs, NDSU sits in the top ten, alongside New Mexico 7-1, UTSA 7-1, Oregon State 5-3, James Madison 7-2, and Memphis 6-2.

II. The Evidence Base: How Recent Move-Ups Have Fared

North Dakota State is not an isolated case, but results vary widely. Before this season, four of the last six teams to transition to the FBS reached the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility in their first season, including Delaware and Missouri State in 2025. Missouri State finished 7-6 overall and 5-3 in CUSA in its first season at the FBS level in 2025 while earning a berth in the inaugural XBox Bowl. Kennesaw State’s rise was even faster. Kennesaw State went from 10 losses to 10 wins, and the win earned the program its first CUSA championship in just its second season in the conference.

The counterexample this year is instructive. Sacramento State, which moved into the MAC at the same time NDSU moved into the Mountain West, is 1–7 (0–5 MAC) under a first-year coach. Second-year programs have also regressed. Missouri State and Delaware met in October as two 2-4 Conference USA programs.

The lesson is that FCS success does not transfer automatically. What transfers is a specific combination: a stable coaching system, a deep roster that can absorb added scholarships, an established donor base, and a fan base large enough to fill a stadium against unfamiliar opponents. Sacramento State had ambition and a stadium plan. North Dakota State had a dynasty.

III. Evaluation Framework

This paper assesses candidates on two axes.

Financial readiness

• Current athletic budget and its gap to the smallest members of the likely destination league
• Football-specific spending
• Donor capacity, shown by recent capital projects
• Stadium capacity and attendance
• Whether football can move without breaking up the all-sports affiliation

Competitive readiness

• Sustained winning over a decade, not one peak season
• Record against FBS opponents
• Coaching continuity
• Roster depth sufficient to absorb the jump from FCS scholarship limits

IV. FCS Programs Capable of an Immediate Leap

Tier One: Ready Now

Montana State. The Bobcats are the reigning FCS champions. The title game was decided when Montana State slipped past Illinois State 35-34 in the first FCS championship game to require overtime. Financially, Montana State already spends like an FBS program. According to data published by the Knight-Newhouse College Athletics Database at Syracuse University, Montana State was the FCS leader in 2023 on football expenses, spending nearly $8.95 million. Its competitive profile is the strongest in the subdivision now that NDSU has left. Montana State’s athletic director has publicly framed the stance this way: “We’re definitely not looking, but we are watching.”

The obstacle is structural. Montana State’s football program sits inside the all-sports Big Sky, so a football-only exit would be more disruptive than NDSU’s departure from the Missouri Valley. Montana State is also already scheduled against the Bison: NDSU is scheduled to play Montana State in the Las Vegas Classic in September 2027. That game will serve as a useful public test of the gap.

South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits combine recent championships with facilities and a structural position nearly identical to NDSU’s. South Dakota State won FCS national titles in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Their football conference is the same football-only Missouri Valley that NDSU left. The facilities are already in place. Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium has a capacity of 19,340 (up from 11,000). The department has shown donor strength through two major projects: the $65 million Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium and the arena that was completed in the fall of 2024 at a cost of approximately $70 million. Stadium operations are also profitable. There was $5,471,000 in total revenues, while total expenditures were $4,161,000. SDSU also ranked No. 3 in FCS football expenses in 2023.

The university’s official stance is cautious. A regional report on the question was titled “Does South Dakota State have FBS aspirations? Not right now.” On paper, however, South Dakota State is the closest analogue to North Dakota State in the country. NDSU’s success in the Mountain West strengthens the Jackrabbits’ case, and it also takes away their marquee rivalry. With NDSU’s move to the FBS, it will likely put a hiatus to the Dakota Marker rivalry.

Montana. The Grizzlies have FCS-leading attendance, a national brand, and sustained playoff success. UC Davis and South Dakota – yes, the Big Sky and MVFC again – are the only two programs other than Montana State and Montana to reach the national quarterfinals in each of the last two seasons. Montana’s leadership has been the most explicit in denying active talks: “There’s been no conversations with the Mountain West or any other FBS conference,” he said. Montana faces the same Big Sky problem as Montana State. The two schools would likely move together or not at all, since separating the Brawl of the Wild rivalry carries real costs for both.

Summary of Tier One. All three schools already spend at or near the top of the FCS and draw crowds comparable to many Group of Six programs. All three have won consistently for a decade or more. Under the new postseason rules, any of them could plausibly reach six wins in a first FBS season.

Tier Two: Plausible Within a Few Years

UC Davis already has an institutional relationship with the Mountain West. UC Davis is joining the MW in all sports but football in 2026 but investing in that sport and has first right of application among FCS schools looking to join the MW in football. Davis is the one FCS school with a contractual path already in place. Its football budget and stadium are smaller than those of the Tier One schools.

South Dakota, North Dakota, and Illinois State have the competitive profile but not yet the finances. Illinois State came within a point of the 2025 title. The Missouri Valley’s depth is unusual. The MVFC sent six of its 10 teams to the FCS playoffs in 2025, including Illinois State, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Dakota State and Youngstown State. None of these programs currently spends like a Tier One school. Regional commentary in Grand Forks has urged North Dakota toward the fund-raising necessary to lock arms with the other Division I programs in South Dakota and Montana, which is an implicit acknowledgment that it is not yet there.

Where would they land?

The Mountain West is the natural destination for the Montana schools and South Dakota State. Wyoming’s athletic director has openly lobbied for expansion from the FCS. Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman has stumped in favor of the MW adding FCS schools, naming North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana State and Montana. For the Dakota schools in particular, geography could point to the MAC as well. The Mountain West’s current footprint already stretches far. NIU is 523 miles away from NDSU, which indicates the conference is willing to absorb long trips in exchange for strong programs.

V. Group of Six Programs Best Positioned for Power-Conference Promotion

The legislative context

The Protect College Sports Act (PCSA) shapes any discussion of promotion. The Senate voted 77-22 to pass the Protect College Sports Act, and under its terms conferences that report more than $700 million in revenue (aka the Power 4: the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC) would be limited to 20 members. Group of Six programs are treated differently from power-conference schools. Schools in the Group of Six, which includes the Pac-12, are not subject to the five-year hold. The same analysis concluded that the best path for a G6 school would be to move in a bloc of three or four to fill a significant void in the Big 12 or ACC. But if the ACC and Big 12 don’t lose schools to the Big Ten or SEC, the pipeline clogs.

In practice, then, Group of Six promotion depends almost entirely on whether power-conference schools leave first. The ACC is the league most exposed to that.

The ACC’s vulnerability

ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips has publicly expressed confidence. “We’re as healthy as we’ve ever been.” The underlying calendar is less reassuring. The settlement of the Clemson and Florida State lawsuits created a fixed exit window: the ACC’s exit fee will decline each year before leveling off around $75 million per school that season, while media deals for other leagues are expiring around that time to create at least the potential for another wave of broad realignment.

The ACC’s most valuable members are already lobbying to widen that window. The presidents and chancellors of Clemson, Florida State, Miami and North Carolina sent a letter last week to House leaders seeking to increase the bill’s membership cap for conferences from 20 to 22 schools. They also requested removing a requirement for a school to be independent for three years before joining another league. The ACC’s media contract also puts it behind its peers. Of the four power conferences, its media deal is the last to expire — in 2036. That means the other three will have time to negotiate new and surely more lucrative TV deals while the ACC is still locked into its current contract. One Virginia commentator’s conclusion was stark: there is no scenario now on the table that preserves the ACC as we’ve known it.

If the ACC loses four to eight of its strongest football schools around 2030–31, it will need to backfill in order to survive as a power conference. The Big 12 would also be positioned to take the most attractive remaining ACC schools. Either outcome opens doors for the Group of Six.

Tier One Promotion Candidates

USF. USF’s case rests on market, enrollment, infrastructure, and recent competitive improvement. USF is the fourth-largest university in Florida, and UCF successfully made the transition from the Group of 5 to the Big 12 as a massive, urban state school, and South Florida has a similar profile. The decisive asset is the on-campus stadium. USF is building a $340 million stadium that will seat about 35,000 people, including luxury and field-level suites, scheduled to open in fall 2027. It is designed to add 10,000 more seats, if future expansion is warranted. On the field, USF went 9-4 in 2025 with a win at Florida. The Bulls were ranked as highly as 18th in the Associated Press Top 25.

For an ACC rebuilding after the departure of Florida State and Miami, USF is the most logical replacement in the Florida market. It would preserve the league’s recruiting footprint and its television presence in the state. Among G6 schools, USF probably fits the ACC best.

Memphis. Memphis has the most consistent recent winning record in the American, along with corporate backing and strong basketball. In 2024, they were 11-2 overall and ended the season with a victory over West Virginia in the Frisco Bowl. The school has already shown it will spend to be promoted. Memphis did reportedly try to join the Big 12, offering the league approximately $200 million to do so, but it didn’t work out. Memphis fits the Big 12 geographically better than it fits the ACC. If the Big 12 takes ACC schools and wants a Mid-South presence, Memphis is the leading candidate.

Tulane. Tulane’s strengths are recent results and academic alignment, especially with the ACC’s research-university profile. The Green Wave were one of two G6 teams to make the CFP for the first time ever having multiple G6 teams. In earlier Pac-12 expansion assessments, Tulane was described as having a solid athletics brand, some proof of performance in sports that matter, and better TV ratings than some others considered. Tulane’s weakness is stadium size and attendance. Its 2026 season, now under .500 after a 3–4 start, shows how quickly a G6 program can fall back after a coaching change.

UTSA. UTSA combines the San Antonio market, a large public university, and current competitive form. It is 7-1 (American) this season. San Antonio is one of the largest U.S. media markets without a power-conference program. That makes UTSA a natural Big 12 target if the league backfills in Texas.

James Madison. James Madison is the clearest example of a former FCS program completing the full climb. It moved up, reached the 2025 College Football Playoff, and is now moving again. James Madison University has been accepted into the American Conference and will begin full membership there no later than July 1, 2028. The school is paying heavily to do so. James Madison will pay a $23 million entrance fee to join the American. One of the primary reasons James Madison is leaving this week is because the Sun Belt is attempting to raise its exit fees. JMU’s Virginia location makes it a direct ACC backfill candidate if Virginia Tech or Virginia were ever to leave. Its trajectory also shows FCS programs what full ambition looks like.

Tier Two Promotion Candidates

UNLV has a market, a stadium, and a new national profile. One preseason ranking listed it 1 · UNLV among G6 teams most likely to move up. Its 2026 season has been uneven, and it is less likely to be chosen than the Tier One schools.

The rebuilt Pac-12 (Boise State, Oregon State, Washington State, San Diego State, and others) is a special case. These schools are technically Group of Six, yet the Pac-12 has its own institutional identity. Its members are likelier to be absorbed into the Big 12 as a bloc than to be picked off one at a time.

North Dakota State may become a promotion candidate itself sooner than expected. During earlier Big 12 speculation, one observer noted that North Dakota State COULD generate interest in a few years. If the Bison keep winning at the FBS level, their budget will remain the only serious obstacle.

VI. Comparative Summary

Candidate	Current Level	Likely Destination	Key Asset	Key Obstacle
Montana State	FCS (Big Sky)	Mountain West	FCS-leading football spending; reigning champion	All-sports conference entanglement
South Dakota State	FCS (MVFC)	Mountain West or MAC	Football-only conference; modern stadium; donor depth	Institutional reluctance
Montana	FCS (Big Sky)	Mountain West	Attendance and brand	Same as Montana State; likely paired move
UC Davis	FCS (Big Sky)	Mountain West	Existing MW membership; first right of application	Smaller football budget
USF	G6 (American)	ACC	Florida market; new stadium in 2027	Inconsistent history before 2025
Memphis	G6 (American)	Big 12	Sustained winning; corporate backing	Geographic fit with ACC
Tulane	G6 (American)	ACC or Big 12	Academics; recent CFP appearance	Stadium size; 2026 regression
UTSA	G6 (American)	Big 12	San Antonio market	Short history at the FBS level
James Madison	G6 (Sun Belt → American)	ACC (long term)	Virginia location; proven ambition	Must first settle into the American

VII. Risks and Constraints

Financial overreach. Moving up permanently raises operating costs. Analysts made this warning plainly when Missouri State moved. Many saw the move as an expensive maneuver just to find yourself back with the same group of schools in 20 years. A program that moves up and ends up in a weakened Group of Six league may gain little revenue while taking on much higher costs.

Coaching fragility. The Sacramento State, Delaware, and Missouri State seasons show how quickly early momentum can fade when a coach leaves or the transfer portal pulls players away.

Legislative uncertainty. If the House passes the PCSA with a 20-member cap, power-conference raids will be limited and the window for G6 promotion will narrow. If the cap rises to 22 and the independence requirement is dropped, the ACC’s most valuable members gain easier exits. That would open backfill spots for USF, Tulane, and James Madison while weakening the conference those schools would be joining.

The playoff variable. The College Football Playoff expanding to 24 teams in 2027 could reduce the incentive to leave a strong Group of Six league. A conference champion’s path to the playoff would become more reliable, so the case for jumping to a power conference would rest less on playoff access and more on media revenue.

VIII. Conclusion

North Dakota State’s first season shows that an elite FCS program can be competitive in the FBS right away. The same evidence also shows that this result depends on specific institutional conditions rather than on ambition alone. Montana State and South Dakota State currently meet those conditions most closely. Montana follows, though probably only in tandem with its rival. With the postseason transition penalty gone, any of the three could realistically reach bowl eligibility in its first FBS season.

At the top of the Group of Six, USF, Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, and James Madison form the realistic pool for promotion. Their prospects depend less on their own merits than on whether the ACC holds together through the 2030–31 exit window. If it fractures, the ACC’s backfill needs and the Big 12’s opportunism will likely decide who moves up. USF’s stadium timeline and market position make it the single most logical beneficiary.

Sources:

• 2026 North Dakota State Bison football team (Wikipedia)
• NDSU now immediately eligible for bowl games after NCAA rule change (Valley News Live)
• North Dakota State to petition for immediate CFP, FBS postseason access (CBS Sports)
• NDSU is finally going FBS (Extra Points)
• NDSU FBS FAQ (GoBison)
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