Tag Archives: weather

Counting the Cost of Dry Feet: The Engineering Economics of Defending Belize City Against the Rain

Posted on June 23, 2026 by nathanalbright

Abstract This paper is a companion to the preceding assessment of Belize City’s rainy-season flooding and long-term viability. Where that paper diagnosed the hazard, this one asks the harder question that follows from it: what does it actually cost to … Continue reading →

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The Rainy Season in Belize City: Storm Regimes, Rainfall Loading, Street Flooding, and the Long-Term Viability of a Sea-Level Capital-of-Commerce

Posted on June 23, 2026 by nathanalbright

Abstract Belize City occupies one of the more difficult sites in the Caribbean basin: a former mangrove flat at or marginally below the level of the sea, exposed to a rainy season that delivers the majority of a high annual … Continue reading →

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White Paper: Condensation at the Boundary: A Diagnostic Case Study of Moisture-Induced Failure in Multi-Use NBA/NHL Arenas

Posted on January 9, 2026 by nathanalbright

Executive Summary On rare occasions, NBA games are postponed due to unsafe playing conditions caused by moisture on the court. While such incidents appear anomalous, they are in fact predictable edge-case failures arising from the interaction of thermodynamics, human occupancy, … Continue reading →

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White Paper: Red Sky Heuristics: Atmospheric Optics, Weather Systems, and the Question of East–West Universality

Posted on December 11, 2025 by nathanalbright

Executive Summary The proverb “Red sky at night, sailors’ delight; red sky in morning, sailors take warning” is one of the most widely circulated pieces of folk meteorology. Its empirical accuracy is surprisingly high—approximately 70–80% in mid-latitude climates—and its validity … Continue reading →

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White Paper: Why Flood Conditions Are Present in the Portland Area and Expected to Persist for Several Days

Posted on December 10, 2025 by nathanalbright

Focus region: Portland–Vancouver metropolitan area, Willamette and lower Columbia basins Date: December 9, 2025 1. Executive Summary Since December 8–9, 2025, the Portland metropolitan area has been experiencing significant flooding and flooding-related impacts driven by a prolonged, warm atmospheric river … Continue reading →

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White Paper: Tehran’s Drought Emergency: Severity, Evacuation Implications, and Feasible Courses of Action

Posted on November 11, 2025 by nathanalbright

Executive summary Tehran and multiple large Iranian cities are facing a compound water emergency driven by multi-year drought, chronic over-extraction of groundwater, and structural mismanagement. In early November 2025, Iran’s president publicly warned that Tehran could face water rationing and … Continue reading →

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Weak Points In Climate Modeling

Posted on January 19, 2025 by nathanalbright

Why do climate modeling efforts fail to adequately reflect reality? Here are some reasons: Climate modeling is a complex scientific endeavor aimed at predicting future climate conditions based on various inputs. While these models have improved over time, several factors … Continue reading →

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The Los Angeles Fires: Lamentable But Predictable

Posted on January 10, 2025 by nathanalbright

The Los Angeles area fires, particularly those occurring in early January 2025, were to a significant extent predictable given the historical context and known environmental conditions of the region. Here’s how: Predictability: Government Failures: Methods of Dealing with Fires: In … Continue reading →

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Hurricane Tales

Posted on September 28, 2022 by nathanalbright

In August of 1992, I remember having the day off of school for a very important reason–a hurricane, Hurricane Andrew specifically–was crossing the state of Florida and so school was canceled because of the threat that the storm posed to … Continue reading →

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Where’s Your Sense Of Adventure

Posted on December 28, 2021 by nathanalbright

One of the things I like to do when there is a bit of winter weather is to talk around a bit. This may seem like an odd sort of habit for someone who finds mobility as painful as I … Continue reading →

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