Update: USF got in as a 12 seed in the “first four game” against Cal. I suppose I’m not a terrible bracketologist after all.

Update #2: USF shows that they belong in the NCAA tournament by battering Cal into submission for their first NCAA victory ever. Now it’s on to face Temple in what should be a battle of two teams with ferocious defenses and suspect offenses. Again, if shots fall, and USF can be better with foul shooting, USF has a chance to pull off the annual 5-12 upset.

[Note: I do not pretend to be an impartial observer, as I graduated with a M.S. from USF in 2008. Nonetheless, I hope not to be so biased that I bet that the University of Tennessee will make the NCAA Tournament, as did an acquaintance of mine.]

Every year, it seems there are complaints about the 37 at-large participants in the NCAA basketball tournament (there are 31 automatic qualifiers, making a total of 68 teams, 8 of whom have to play in a “First Round” play-in game) that they are the worst crop of teams that commentators have seen ever, and that the teams at the bottom of the list should have been happy to play in the NIT in the past. All of this is no doubt true, but it is also pointless. 37 at-large teams have to be chosen to fill the slots, and not all of those teams are going to look great. That’s the way the bubble pops.

But, since I particularly care about one bubble team, the University of South Florida, let’s look first at its own profile and then compare it with the teams that it is competing against. The fact that the profile for a team in USF’s position may not be impressive does not really matter given the context that 37 at-large teams have to be chosen, and if USF is one of the 37 best, they deserve a spot, even if they don’t appear to be a very “sexy” team.

USF’s Profile:

Record: 20-13 (12-6 T-4 Big East)
RPI: 53 [1]
Best wins: @Louisville, vs. Cincinnati (both top 50 wins), vs. Seton Hall [2]
Worst losses: vs. Old Dominion (neutral), vs. Penn St. (neutral), @Auburn
Against Other Bubble Teams: Loss @Southern Miss, Win vs. Seton Hall, loss vs. West Virginia
Notes: USF wins ugly, without a lot of scoring and with a ferocious defense. Missed games from key players hindered USF early during a fairly weak OOC schedule (best OOC win: Cleveland State), but once conference play started USF showed the tenacity to knock a few good teams and win against all the bad ones. A gaudy conference record does not reflect the fact that USF was probably about the eighth best team in the Big East, but that should be good enough for a 12 seed and a first round opponent against a team that has 40 (or more) long minutes against a ferocious defense ahead of it, and a possible upset in the first round if a few shots fall.

Competition:
According to the Bracket project [3], the following teams are seeded 10th or below, or on the outside of the Bubble. Let us see how USF compares against these teams:

Virginia, California, Southern Miss, West Virginia, Texas, Colorado State, BYU, Xavier [4], USF, North Carolina State, Seton Hall, Drexel, Miami, Mississippi State, Washington, Tennessee, Marshall, Iona, Northwestern, Mississippi

Compared to the teams that USF is competing with for the last few spots, USF’s profile ranks best along with teams like Texas, Colorado State, BYU, North Carolina State, Miami, Northwestern and Tennessee, along with a few others just for giggles [5]. Let’s see how these teams compare.

USF has 2 top 50 wins, as does Miami and Oral Roberts. BYU, NC State and Northwestern have one. California and Washington (along with Arizona and Oregon in the Pac 12, and Drexel) have zero. West Virginia has 4 (it’s probably in), as does Texas (also problably in, even with two “bad” losses) and Marshall (a hard team to figure out, but one with a similar profile to USF). Colorado State and Seton Hall have 3 (and Seton Hall almost counts as USF’s third win), even if most of Colorado State’s wins happened at home and USF had to play all of their elite competitors in their league away.

Again, given the competition, it would appear as if USF sits roughly in the middle of this group, around Texas and North Carolina State, a little above Northwestern and California and Drexel and Iona and Miami, a little below Southern Miss and Colorado State, but right about on the 12 line. There’s only one potential bid stealer left (St. Bonaventure from the Atlantic-10), and so it would appear as if tonight the USF Bulls will likely be a 12 seed and possibly avoid the dreaded “first four” in Dayton). There’s nothing more that USF can do about that, but it should give USF its third NCAA tournament appearance, and its first since 1992. Go Bulls!

[1] http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/content/two-days-left-ncaa-bubble-hasnt-hurt-bulls-badly

[2] http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/58/south-florida-bulls

[3] http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

[4] Xavier may win the Atlantic-10 automatic bid. They play in the finals against a St. Bonaventure team that, if they won, would be a “bid stealer” and probably a 13 seed.

[5] http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch