Tag Archives: weather

White Paper: Red Sky Heuristics: Atmospheric Optics, Weather Systems, and the Question of East–West Universality

Posted on December 11, 2025 by nathanalbright

Executive Summary The proverb “Red sky at night, sailors’ delight; red sky in morning, sailors take warning” is one of the most widely circulated pieces of folk meteorology. Its empirical accuracy is surprisingly high—approximately 70–80% in mid-latitude climates—and its validity … Continue reading →

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White Paper: Why Flood Conditions Are Present in the Portland Area and Expected to Persist for Several Days

Posted on December 10, 2025 by nathanalbright

Focus region: Portland–Vancouver metropolitan area, Willamette and lower Columbia basins Date: December 9, 2025 1. Executive Summary Since December 8–9, 2025, the Portland metropolitan area has been experiencing significant flooding and flooding-related impacts driven by a prolonged, warm atmospheric river … Continue reading →

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White Paper: Tehran’s Drought Emergency: Severity, Evacuation Implications, and Feasible Courses of Action

Posted on November 11, 2025 by nathanalbright

Executive summary Tehran and multiple large Iranian cities are facing a compound water emergency driven by multi-year drought, chronic over-extraction of groundwater, and structural mismanagement. In early November 2025, Iran’s president publicly warned that Tehran could face water rationing and … Continue reading →

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Weak Points In Climate Modeling

Posted on January 19, 2025 by nathanalbright

Why do climate modeling efforts fail to adequately reflect reality? Here are some reasons: Climate modeling is a complex scientific endeavor aimed at predicting future climate conditions based on various inputs. While these models have improved over time, several factors … Continue reading →

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The Los Angeles Fires: Lamentable But Predictable

Posted on January 10, 2025 by nathanalbright

The Los Angeles area fires, particularly those occurring in early January 2025, were to a significant extent predictable given the historical context and known environmental conditions of the region. Here’s how: Predictability: Government Failures: Methods of Dealing with Fires: In … Continue reading →

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Hurricane Tales

Posted on September 28, 2022 by nathanalbright

In August of 1992, I remember having the day off of school for a very important reason–a hurricane, Hurricane Andrew specifically–was crossing the state of Florida and so school was canceled because of the threat that the storm posed to … Continue reading →

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Where’s Your Sense Of Adventure

Posted on December 28, 2021 by nathanalbright

One of the things I like to do when there is a bit of winter weather is to talk around a bit. This may seem like an odd sort of habit for someone who finds mobility as painful as I … Continue reading →

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On The Conditions Of Writing

Posted on July 30, 2021 by nathanalbright

I find myself often pondering not only about writing but about the conditions in which writing is possible. I say this in the midst of what must be the hottest summer on record here in Oregon’s history, and I can … Continue reading →

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Scenes From An Oven

Posted on June 29, 2021 by nathanalbright

For reasons of bad timing, today I found myself with an invitation to pick up some personal belongings at work at my desk between 11AM and 11:45AM, which I did after doing a bit of work at home dealing with … Continue reading →

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Keep Your Cool

Posted on June 28, 2021 by nathanalbright

One of the reliable conversation topics one can have in a conversation is the weather. Talking about the weather gets a bad reputation, as if one is so boring and so bored with one’s company that one is talking about … Continue reading →

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