15 September 3015

My Dear Sister Elizabeth,

I write to you following events of the past week that have significant implications for our understanding of Bravian intentions and for our assessment of the regional balance of power. The Feast of Trumpets—one of Bravia’s most important religious observances—has become the occasion for announcements that fundamentally alter the political landscape of our region and that will require careful consideration by His Majesty’s government.

Let me provide you with a detailed account of what has occurred, what I have observed, and what I believe these developments mean for our nation’s interests and for our family’s position.

On the Feast of Trumpets and the Establishment of Co-Regency

The Feast of Trumpets, which the Bravians observe according to their religious calendar (they maintain the ancient Hebrew calendar brought with them from their homeland), fell this year on what we would call the 10th of September. This is traditionally one of the most solemn occasions in the Bravian religious year—a day of reflection, prayer, and renewal of commitment to what they term their “covenant responsibilities.”

The religious services on this day are normally significant affairs, attended by the Exilarch and the senior leadership of the nation, held in the Great Sanctuary in their capital city. This year, however, the services took on extraordinary significance because the elderly Exilarch—who has ruled Bravia for nearly forty years and who is now in his late seventies—used the occasion to formally install his crown prince as co-ruler, establishing what they are calling a “co-regency.”

Lysander and I attended these services as representatives of our nation, along with diplomatic representatives from several other nations. I will attempt to describe what we witnessed and what I believe it signifies.

The ceremony itself was conducted with a gravity and solemnity that I found quite moving, Elizabeth, even as someone who does not share their religious convictions. The Exilarch, who appeared frail but still commanded considerable presence, spoke at length about the responsibility of leadership, about the weight of authority, and about the importance of ensuring continuity and stability during times of significant change.

He spoke of his son—Crown Prince Michael—in terms that suggested both deep affection and careful assessment. He described him as having been “prepared for this responsibility through decades of service and learning,” as possessing “wisdom tempered by experience and strength guided by principle,” and as being “ready to share the burden of leadership that grows heavier with each passing year.”

The installation itself followed what I was told are ancient forms dating back to the original settlement. The crown prince knelt before his father, who placed upon his head a circlet similar to but slightly less ornate than his own crown. He then raised his son to stand beside him and proclaimed him “co-regent and co-ruler, sharing equally in authority and responsibility, governing alongside me until such time as God determines the full burden shall pass to him alone.”

What followed was quite remarkable. Every senior official of the Bravian government—ministers, military commanders, judges, regional governors—came forward one by one to pledge their loyalty to both rulers jointly. Not to the crown prince subordinate to his father, but to both men as equal holders of authority. The implication was clear: the crown prince is not merely heir apparent or deputy ruler. He is now fully invested with sovereign authority alongside his father.

After the installation, the crown prince—I suppose I should now call him co-Exilarch, though I am told they have not settled on the precise terminology to use—gave his own address. He spoke with a combination of humility and confidence that I found impressive. He acknowledged the weight of the responsibility he was assuming, praised his father’s leadership and wisdom, and committed himself to continuing what he termed “the sacred work of building and protecting our nation.”

More significantly for our purposes, he also spoke about Bravia’s relationship with neighboring nations and about their vision for regional stability. I took careful notes and will provide you with the most relevant portions:

“We stand at a moment of great change in our region. The old order—characterized by isolation, suspicion, and the constant threat of conflict—is giving way to new possibilities for cooperation, mutual prosperity, and lasting peace. But such change does not come easily. It requires courage to embrace new arrangements. It requires wisdom to build institutions that can endure. And it requires patience to allow trust to develop where mistrust has long prevailed.”

“Bravia seeks no dominion over our neighbors. We seek partnership with those who share our commitment to order, to justice, to prosperity. We seek security arrangements that protect all participants rather than threatening any. We seek economic integration that raises all boats rather than benefiting some at the expense of others. We seek, ultimately, to build a regional order in which small nations need not fear larger ones, in which disputes are resolved through law rather than force, and in which all peoples can pursue their happiness in peace and security.”

Elizabeth, I report these words to you knowing that they will be received with considerable skepticism at home—and perhaps with some skepticism from you as well. The gap between noble sentiments and actual intentions is often vast, and powerful nations have a long history of claiming benevolent motives while pursuing self-interested policies.

But I must tell you that I have observed this crown prince—this co-Exilarch—for some time now, and my assessment is that he believes what he is saying. Whether Bravian actions will match Bravian rhetoric remains to be seen, but I do not think the rhetoric is merely cynical posturing. The Bravians genuinely believe they are building something new and better, even as we and others may question whether their vision adequately accounts for the interests and concerns of those who would be included in it.

On the Public Prayers Regarding War Termination

Following the installation ceremony, the religious services included prayers concerning the ongoing military operations in our neighbor’s territory. These prayers were led by the senior religious leaders—what the Bravians call the “Standing Council of Elders”—and they were quite specific in their content.

The prayers asked for “wisdom in bringing to a just conclusion the conflict that has caused so much suffering,” for “mercy toward those who have been defeated but must now find their place in a new order,” and for “discernment in establishing arrangements that will prevent such conflict from arising again.”

More tellingly, the prayers also referenced ongoing negotiations. One of the senior elders prayed: “Grant success to those who even now labor to find terms that will bring this war to an end, that will establish just governance for a people who have been ill-served by their former rulers, and that will create foundations for lasting peace.”

After the services, I was able to speak briefly with one of the Bravian officials I have cultivated as a source—a man who holds a position in their Foreign Ministry. He confirmed what the prayers implied: that negotiations are indeed underway to formalize the end of hostilities with our neighbor.

According to this source, the negotiations involve representatives of our neighbor’s surviving military and civil leadership—those elements that have accepted that continued resistance is futile and that have agreed to discuss terms for ending the conflict. The Bravians are apparently offering relatively generous terms: no mass retribution against defeated forces who surrender peacefully, retention of considerable local autonomy in internal affairs, incorporation into Bravia’s economic system with access to Bravian markets and investment, and eventual representation in Bravian governing institutions.

The alternative, my source indicated, is continued military operations until all resistance is completely eliminated, followed by direct military occupation and administration. The Bravians are making clear that they will prevail regardless, but they are offering their defeated enemy a choice between incorporation as a partner (albeit a distinctly junior partner) or subjugation as a conquered province.

My source also indicated that the negotiations are progressing reasonably well—that most of our neighbor’s surviving leadership has recognized that they have no viable military options and that accepting Bravian terms is preferable to continued devastation. He estimated that formal agreements might be reached within the next few weeks, with the border being reopened shortly thereafter once Bravian authorities are satisfied that security conditions permit.

Elizabeth, I report this to you because it provides some hope that the border closure that has caused such anxiety at home may be resolved relatively soon. However, I must also note that “relatively soon” in Bravian thinking may still be several weeks or even months, and that the ultimate outcome—the incorporation of our neighbor into Bravia’s sphere of influence—represents a significant shift in regional power dynamics regardless of when exactly it occurs.

On the Regional Alliance Announcement

The most significant development, however—and the one that will have the most profound implications for our region—came on the day following the Feast of Trumpets, when the co-Exilarchs jointly announced the formation of what they are calling the “Western Compact.”

This announcement was made at a ceremony attended by diplomatic representatives from the four Western nations that border Bravia—nations that, like the five landlocked Eastern nations that previously concluded an alliance with Bravia, are smaller powers that have historically existed in Bravia’s shadow but have maintained their independence.

The Western Compact, according to the announcement and the treaty documents that were distributed to diplomatic representatives (including myself), creates a comprehensive alliance structure that mirrors exactly the Eastern Alliance that was previously established. The key provisions include:

Military Integration: Joint military exercises, coordinated defense planning, standardization of military equipment and training, and a mutual defense commitment whereby an attack on any member is treated as an attack on all members. Bravian military advisors will be assigned to assist in training and modernization of allied military forces.

Economic Integration: Elimination of all tariffs and trade barriers between Bravia and the Western nations. Creation of a unified trading system with common standards and regulations. Bravian investment in infrastructure development in allied nations. Free movement of goods, capital, and eventually people across borders.

Political Coordination: Regular consultations on foreign policy matters affecting the region. Coordination of diplomatic positions on matters of common interest. Creation of advisory councils where representatives of allied nations can participate in discussions about regional policies.

Path to Provincial Status: Most significantly, the treaty includes provisions for the eventual incorporation of allied nations as provinces within Bravia—though this is described as a gradual process that will occur “when conditions permit and when the peoples of allied nations determine through appropriate processes that such incorporation serves their interests.”

Elizabeth, the implications of this development can hardly be overstated. When combined with the Eastern Alliance previously concluded, Bravia has now created a regional bloc that includes itself and nine neighboring nations—five to the east, four to the west. This bloc encompasses virtually the entire inhabitable region of this continent, with the exception of our nation and two or three smaller polities that remain outside the alliance structure.

Moreover, the treaty makes clear that this is not intended to be a static arrangement. The provisions regarding eventual incorporation as provinces indicate that the Bravians envision ultimately absorbing these allied nations entirely, creating a single unified state that would dominate the region absolutely.

During the ceremony announcing the Western Compact, the senior co-Exilarch (the father) gave remarks that made this vision explicit:

“What we are building here is not merely an alliance of convenience or a temporary arrangement to address immediate security concerns. We are laying the foundations for a lasting political order—an order based on common values, common institutions, and ultimately common governance. We are demonstrating that small nations need not remain weak and vulnerable, that they can find strength through unity, that they can achieve together what none could achieve alone.”

“The nations that join with us in this endeavor will find in Bravia not a master but a partner. They will retain their distinct identities, their local customs, their treasured traditions. But they will also share in the security, the prosperity, and the stability that come from being part of a larger, stronger political community. And in time—when trust has been established, when the benefits have been demonstrated, when the peoples themselves choose this path—they will join with us not as allies but as full members of a single nation dedicated to the wellbeing of all its citizens.”

The representatives of the four Western nations who were present—all of them, I should note, senior officials of their governments, including two crown princes and one prime minister—expressed their enthusiasm for these arrangements and their gratitude to Bravia for extending this opportunity to them.

Elizabeth, I observed these representatives carefully, trying to assess whether they were genuinely enthusiastic or were simply making the best of circumstances they could not control. My assessment is that their feelings were mixed. Some appeared genuinely excited about the opportunities these arrangements might create. Others appeared more resigned—accepting that Bravia’s dominance is inevitable and that allying with them is preferable to being isolated or worse.

But what was absent from any of these expressions was any suggestion of reluctance or resistance. No one questioned whether these arrangements were wise. No one raised concerns about loss of sovereignty or about becoming subordinate to Bravian authority. The prevailing sentiment appeared to be acceptance that Bravia is now the dominant power in the region and that alignment with them is simply the reality that smaller nations must accommodate.

On the Implications for Our Nation

Elizabeth, I have been thinking carefully about what these developments mean for our nation, and I must tell you candidly that the implications are sobering.

We are now one of the few nations in the region that has not joined Bravia’s alliance system. Our neighbor to the south is being incorporated by force. The nations to Bravia’s east and west have joined voluntarily. This leaves us—and perhaps two or three other small polities—standing outside a regional bloc that includes nearly every other significant political entity in our part of the world.

This isolation has both advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, we have maintained our sovereignty and our freedom of action in ways that Bravia’s alliance partners have not. We are not bound by Bravian military commitments, not obligated to coordinate our foreign policy with theirs, not committed to eventual incorporation as a Bravian province.

On the other hand, we are increasingly isolated in a region where Bravia is establishing itself as the sole significant power. Our trade relationships may be disrupted as the Bravian bloc creates preferential arrangements for members. Our security may be compromised if we are seen as outside the regional order that Bravia is constructing. Our political influence will diminish as we are excluded from the consultative mechanisms through which Bravia coordinates with its allies.

Moreover, the border closure has already demonstrated that Bravia will act in its own interests regardless of the impact on us, and that we have very limited ability to influence their actions. If Bravia concludes that our continued independence is inconvenient or that our territory would better serve regional interests under their control, what exactly would prevent them from acting on that conclusion?

The treaty we negotiated with Bravia provides some protections. The personal relationships I have developed with Bravian leaders provide some influence. The historical connection dating from the First Battle of Cape Esperance provides some goodwill. But none of these things changes the fundamental reality that Bravia is vastly more powerful than we are and that they are actively constructing a regional order in which there is no obvious place for independent nations that stand outside their alliance system.

I do not write this to alarm you unnecessarily, Elizabeth, but I believe His Majesty’s government must confront these realities squarely rather than hoping they will somehow resolve themselves favorably. We face difficult choices about how to position ourselves in relation to this emerging regional order, and we cannot defer those choices indefinitely.

On the Question of What We Should Do

You asked in your previous letter what recommendations I would make, given that my dispatches are receiving high-level attention and may significantly influence policy decisions. Let me offer my assessment as clearly as I can, recognizing that these are difficult judgments about which reasonable people may disagree.

First, I believe we should seek to deepen our treaty relationship with Bravia, making ourselves more useful to them and more integrated into their regional system without formally joining the alliance structure that would commit us to eventual incorporation. We should look for ways to cooperate on matters of mutual interest—economic development, infrastructure projects, cultural exchanges—that demonstrate our value as a partner while preserving our formal independence.

Second, I believe we should work to position ourselves as a bridge between Bravia and nations or regions beyond Bravia’s immediate sphere of influence. If we can make ourselves valuable as an intermediary or as a gateway for Bravian engagement with more distant regions, we create a function for ourselves that justifies our continued independence.

Third, I believe we should quietly but systematically strengthen our own internal capabilities—our economic productivity, our administrative efficiency, our educational system—so that we become less vulnerable to Bravian pressure and more capable of protecting our essential interests. This is not about matching Bravian military power, which is impossible, but about making ourselves resilient enough that subjugating us would be more trouble than it is worth.

Fourth, I believe we should cultivate personal relationships and institutional connections with Bravian leaders that give us insight into their thinking and some influence over their decisions. This is what I have been attempting to do during my time here, and I believe it has had some success. The Bravians respect competence, value reliable partners, and appreciate those who understand their perspective even when disagreeing with their conclusions.

Fifth, and most controversially, I believe we should begin having serious internal discussions about what arrangements we might accept if Bravia ultimately insists on some form of formal integration. I am not suggesting we should preemptively surrender our sovereignty. But I think we should understand what terms we would consider acceptable and what terms we would resist, so that if such discussions become necessary, we are prepared to negotiate effectively rather than simply reacting.

Elizabeth, I recognize that this last recommendation will be particularly difficult for many at home to accept. The very suggestion that we should contemplate arrangements that limit our sovereignty will strike some as defeatist or even as treasonous. But I believe that understanding our bottom line—what we could accept and what we could not—is essential to effective diplomacy. It is the difference between being clear-eyed about difficult realities and being caught unprepared when events force choices upon us.

I also recognize that these recommendations reflect a fundamentally accommodationist approach that Baron Rothwell and his faction will reject. They will argue that we should be preparing to resist Bravian expansion rather than seeking to accommodate ourselves to it. And I acknowledge that there is a principled argument to be made for that position.

But having observed Bravia’s capabilities first-hand, having witnessed the systematic way they are constructing their regional order, and having assessed the limited options available to a small nation in our position, I believe accommodation offers better prospects for protecting our essential interests than does resistance. We cannot prevent Bravia from dominating the region. We can, perhaps, negotiate the terms on which that domination affects us.

On the Eastern River Development and the Septimus Initiative

I must also inform you of a development involving Lysander that has both opportunities and complications. As part of Bravia’s expansion of infrastructure to integrate their eastern and western regions, they are constructing a major new city called Center Guardian at a strategic location along the Eastern River—a location where the river is both navigable and crossable, providing a natural junction point between the Eastern Forest Region (which was part of Bravia’s original settlement) and the Western Forest Region (which they acquired when they incorporated their western neighbors).

This city is being developed as a hub for trade and transportation, with major investments in warehouses, port facilities, roads, and other infrastructure. The goal is to make it easier to move goods and people between Bravia’s eastern and western territories and to facilitate future expansion northward into currently unsettled regions.

The development is being led in part by Prince Marcus of the Septimus line—one of the cadet branches of Bravia’s royal family. Prince Marcus, who is apparently an energetic and ambitious young man some five years older than Lysander, has taken personal interest in this project and is actively recruiting investors from both within Bravia and from allied nations.

Several weeks ago, Prince Marcus approached me at a diplomatic function and inquired whether our nation or our merchants might be interested in investing in warehouse facilities in Center Guardian. He made a compelling case that such facilities would serve our trade interests well, providing secure storage for goods moving through the region and access to the transportation network Bravia is building.

I indicated that I would communicate this opportunity to His Majesty’s government and to relevant commercial interests at home, which I hereby do. I believe there may be genuine opportunities here for merchants with capital to invest and vision to see where regional trade patterns are heading.

However, Prince Marcus also approached Lysander directly—apparently having learned that Lysander is of age and possesses some personal capital inherited from his father. He invited Lysander to join a syndicate of younger investors who are pooling resources to fund warehouse construction, offering terms that are generous enough to be attractive but not so generous as to seem suspicious.

Elizabeth, Lysander came to me to discuss this opportunity, as he properly should have. We had a long conversation about whether he should participate, and about what the implications might be. I ultimately left the decision to him, while providing what guidance I could.

On the one hand, this presents a genuine opportunity for Lysander to establish business relationships with influential Bravians, to demonstrate his willingness to participate in regional development, and potentially to earn returns on his inherited capital. If Center Guardian develops as the Bravians project, early investors in infrastructure there could do quite well.

On the other hand, becoming financially entangled with Bravian investments creates potential conflicts of interest and could be seen at home as evidence that Lysander has been co-opted by Bravian interests. Moreover, if regional politics deteriorate, having capital invested in Bravian projects could become problematic.

Lysander has decided to participate in the investment, but at a modest scale—enough to establish his presence and his relationships, but not so much that he becomes dependent on the success of these ventures or vulnerable to pressure based on his financial exposure. I believe this is a reasonable approach that balances the opportunities against the risks.

I mention this to you both because you should be aware of Lysander’s activities and because it represents in microcosm the kinds of choices our nation faces. Do we engage with Bravian economic development, seeking to benefit from it and to establish our presence in it? Or do we maintain distance, preserving our independence but potentially being excluded from opportunities and from influence?

These are not easy questions, Elizabeth, and I do not claim to have definitive answers. I can only report what I observe, share my analysis, and trust that His Majesty’s government will weigh these matters carefully and will make decisions that serve our interests as best as circumstances permit.

On Lysander’s Development

I am pleased to report that Lysander continues to develop well in his role here. He conducted himself admirably during the Feast of Trumpets services and the subsequent ceremonies. He is becoming more comfortable with diplomatic protocols, more confident in social interactions with Bravian officials, and more nuanced in his understanding of Bravian perspectives.

His language skills continue to improve steadily. He can now conduct basic conversations in Bravian Hebrew without excessive difficulty, though he still requires translation for complex discussions or technical matters. His reading comprehension has improved to the point where he can work through documents with dictionary assistance.

More importantly, he is developing the diplomatic instincts that cannot be taught directly but must be learned through observation and experience. He is learning to read social situations, to understand what is being communicated beyond the literal words being spoken, to recognize when to speak and when to listen. These are the skills that distinguish merely competent diplomats from truly effective ones, and I am encouraged by his progress.

He remains somewhat idealistic in his view of Bravia—more inclined than I am to take Bravian statements at face value and to believe in the benevolence of Bravian intentions. But this is natural for someone his age and at his stage of development. He is thoughtful enough to question his own assumptions when they are challenged, which is the critical quality that will allow him to develop more sophisticated judgment over time.

I have been gradually increasing his responsibilities, allowing him to handle more substantive tasks and to participate in more significant discussions. He has drafted several reports on economic and cultural developments that were of sufficient quality that I transmitted them to His Majesty’s government with only minor edits. He has represented our embassy at several functions where I could not be present, and I have received positive feedback about how he conducted himself.

I continue to monitor carefully for signs that he is being unduly influenced by Bravian perspectives or that he is losing touch with the interests he is here to serve. Thus far I see no concerning evidence of this, but I remain vigilant. The risk of “going native”—of identifying too strongly with the host country and losing sight of one’s own nation’s interests—is real for anyone who spends extended time abroad, and it is particularly acute for young people who are still forming their worldviews.

Elizabeth, I know you worry about Lysander, and I know that recent events have intensified your anxieties about his position and his wellbeing. Let me assure you that he is thriving here, that he is doing meaningful work, and that I am watching over him as carefully as I can. He is your son and our family’s future, and I am as committed to his welfare and his proper development as you are.

On Our Family’s Position

You wrote to me about the precarious position our family faces at home, caught between the competing factions and vulnerable to political winds that might shift in dangerous directions. Let me respond with what perspective I can offer from my position here.

First, I believe our family’s expertise on Bravia is becoming more valuable rather than less as events unfold. The border closure and the alliance announcements have made clear that understanding Bravia and managing our relationship with them is not an optional peripheral concern but a central imperative for our nation’s security and prosperity. This should enhance the value of the work we are doing and the insights we are providing.

Second, I believe the key to protecting our position is to maintain scrupulous honesty and to avoid being identified too closely with any particular faction. We should provide accurate information and sound analysis without advocating too strongly for particular policies. Let the various factions use our information to support their arguments, but do not let them claim that we belong to their faction or that our analysis is driven by factional loyalties.

Third, I believe we should cultivate relationships across factional lines—maintaining connections with Baron Rothwell and his associates even as we also work with Lord Ashford and Lady Margrave. If we are seen as belonging to all sides rather than to one side, we become more valuable and less vulnerable.

Fourth, I believe we should be prepared for the possibility that political winds may shift rapidly and unpredictably. Have contingency plans, as you wisely mentioned you are developing. Maintain access to resources that are not dependent on governmental favor. Preserve options for adapting to changed circumstances if necessary.

But most fundamentally, Elizabeth, I believe we should continue doing what we have been doing: serving honestly, reporting accurately, and working to protect our nation’s interests as best we can discern them. If we do this faithfully and competently, we give ourselves the best chance of weathering whatever political storms may develop. And if despite our best efforts the political situation turns against us, we will at least have the satisfaction of knowing we served with integrity.

In Closing

Elizabeth, I close this already lengthy letter with profound awareness of the difficulty of the situation we face—as a family, as diplomatic servants of our nation, and as individuals trying to navigate circumstances largely beyond our control.

We live in a time of great change, when old orders are passing away and new arrangements are being formed. Whether these changes will ultimately serve our interests or threaten them remains to be seen. But we cannot stop these changes from occurring. We can only try to understand them clearly, to position ourselves as wisely as possible, and to protect what matters most as skillfully as we can.

I am confident in your judgment and your strength, dear sister. I am confident that you will manage our family’s position at home with the same wisdom and care you have always demonstrated. And I am confident that together—you managing affairs at home, me managing our work here, and Lysander developing into the capable diplomat he is becoming—we can navigate whatever challenges we face.

Continue to write to me with your observations and your concerns. Your perspective from home is invaluable to me, and your counsel is something I rely on more than you perhaps realize.

May God grant us all wisdom, strength, and grace for the days ahead.

Your devoted brother,

Leonidas Smith