Iran Rising: The Survival And Future Of The Islamic Republic, by Amin Saikal

For some people, at least, the continued survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the face of the frequent opposition of its population to the rule of mullahs and mojtaheds from other parts of the world as well as from a local population, requires some explanation. The author, in this book, which is certainly more favorable to the leadership of Iran than I would be, has a lot to say that is both in praise and in criticism of the regime, but also aware of the dynamism within the regime that keeps them in power. Included in that dynamic, according to the author, is a combination between jihadi and ijtihadi. Interestingly enough, the conservative elites of the jihadi side have tended to find themselves involved in a lot of corruption in profiting from their political position, while the reformist side seems to be far more popular with the majority of the population of Iran, especially city dwellers and those with education. The author, as might be expected, focuses most of his attention on the internal political and external geopolitical aspects of Iran’s existence. Of particular interest is the way that the author believes that Iran offers a strong enough cultural pull on its people that the nation has considerable soft power even if its hard power is strictly limited to mostly defensive capabilities.

This book is a bit more than 250 pages and it is divided into eight chapters. The book begins with a preface, a note on terms and transliteration from Farsi, and abbreviations. The author then gives a reasonably long introduction that organizes the material of the book and introduces (1). This is followed by a discussion of the Iranian Revolution and a transition from a broad-based opposition to the Shah to an authoritarian regime by Khomeini that betrayed a large number of democratic hopes of many protesters (2). This is followed by a detailed discussion of the complexities of Khomeini’s theo-political order that remains the only Islamic Republic to the present-day (3). After this there is a historical discussion of the transition to Khamenei’s leadership in the period going from Rasanjani to Rouhani (4). After this historical summary the author changes tack and looks at the resource capabilities of Iran as a middle power whose ability to project power is somewhat limited and often requires the support of more powerful nations (like Russia) but which has the ability to defend itself and make itself an unattractive target for forced regime change (5). This is followed by a look at Iran’s regional relations (6), which have tended to be focused on the Middle East and Central and South Asia, for the most part, with ambivalent relations with Europe, Russia, and China beyond that, and a permanent hostility, it seems, with the United States (7), among the major powers. The book then ends with a conclusion about Iran being vulnerable in its current state, as it has been throughout its recent history (8), along with notes, a bibliography, and an index.

Perhaps the most notable thing about this book that stands out on the negative side is that the book is highly mistitled. In the eyes of the author, Iran is more or less treading water, rather than rising. Its efforts to improve its economy have generally depended on world oil prices, making it impossible to escape from the resource trap. Its economy grows at times, but contracts at other times, and there is a frequent frustration on the part of young people with a high youth unemployment rate that has remained persistently high for a long time. Similarly, Iran has sought to expand its cultural approval in the Middle East and Central Asia by appealing to a broader cultural legacy going back thousands of years and combining pan-Islamic and Shia-specific appeals, to limited success. Unfortunately, while Iran has had able enough diplomats to be able to make occasional agreements with nations around it, there appears to be limited goodwill, and enough problems that Iran really doesn’t have any permanent friends, and some seemingly permanent enemies (like the United States). And though the Islamic Republic has been in power for more than 40 years, it seems like it is always in a state of permanent crisis, and its survival is always seen as being at stake with the latest political or geopolitical problem. It is no different now.