Right now China and the Philippines are engaging in a diplomacy of brinksmanship that is threatening open warfare in the South China Sea over an uninhabited group of islands that are claimed by half a dozen nations. The islands would be unimportant except that that they sit over large oil reserves and therefore attract the greedy eyes of numerous nations. Naturally, as a military historian, I have a profound interest in this conflict, as it shows the ruthless competition for natural resources and national prestige and how colliding domestic concerns can lead to ferocious international conflicts over otherwise worthless islands.

The conflict over the Spratleys, a group of uninhabited islands nearly squarely in the middle of the South China Sea, is not new [1]. I read of the conflict first myself in one of my mother’s college textbooks on geography. No less than six nations: China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, have competing claims over parts of the territory and have a military presence of some kind in these low-lying islands to protect their claims to the oil that in the seas around these otherwise useless atolls. The heart of the current conflict is the longstanding dispute of the Philippines and China, whose claims are the most extensive, and the most volatile.

The current crisis between China and the Philippines is occurring over a shoal called the Scarborough Shoal that is just west of Luzon and is claimed by China, Taiwan, and the Philippines. It is also uninhabited but has plenty of oil. China’s claims in the South China sea are a large U-shaped area that includes all of the territory in question the Spratly Islands and surrounding areas, while the Philippines claims both the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal as part of the Philippines exclusive economic zone [2].

Making matters more complicated is the presence of outside nations. For example, India, a rising naval power of its own, has signed an oil exploration deal with Vietnam that appears to be upsetting the Chinese (who claim the whole archipelago and its surrounding areas) [3]. India, whose oil exploration deal depends on peace, has been urging calm between the various combatants [4], but such calm appears to be elusive at the present moment, especially since China has already opened fire on Vietnamese fishing ships in the region and Philippine naval forces have already forced Chinese fishing ships to withdraw from the islands in dispute. Amidst rising protests in both China and the Philippines against each other, the dispute is rapidly entering the stage of jingoist fervor, which requires great statesmanship to manage, political skill that seems lacking in today’s world leaders.

Both China and the Philippines have pretty compelling internal issues that could very easily lead to war. The Philippines are a poor nation with a serious need for energy, and boast a longstanding relationship with the United States. It seems likely that the Philippines is backing on American support to tip the balance against Chinese military might, which would force the United States into a largely unwanted military conflict [5]. Most Americans seem to know nothing of this conflict, or the fact that the United States has been putting marines in Australia and troops in the Philippines, with Secretary of State Hilary Clinton already committing to following the Mutual Defense Treaty obligations between the United States and the Philippines for both nations to protect the interests of the others, even over obscure reefs and islands.

Right now the danger of war is very high, as the people of both China and the Philippines as well as the political leadership of both countries and the United States are making serious preparations for open warfare. The Chinese in particular seem to be using this crisis as a way to test the resolve of the Americans. In 1979 the Chinese initiated a minor border war against Vietnam, which was widely (and falsely) thought to be a failure, as the territorial gains were minimal but Soviet support of Vietnam was also shown to be largely illusory. China was therefore the first nation (shortly before Poland) to show the bankruptcy of Soviet foreign policy in its allied regimes. It appears as if China is playing a serious game, knowing the dangerous economic position of the United States and testing its resolve to stand by its ally over a minor territorial issue.

Clearly, if this conflict reaches the state of open war between China and the Philippines, there will be an expectation on the side of the Philippines for American help according to our treaty obligations. India will attempt to play an honest third party. Depending on the severity of the conflict, it is easy to see this particular conflict become part of a larger war, especially if China takes the opportunity to open second or third fronts in areas like Taiwan and South Korea, where China and the United States are also at odds and where American military capability (especially in logistics) may be seen as stretched. It remains unclear if America’s political leadership (much less the American people) are willing to spend blood and treasure in the South China Sea, where Vietnam War syndrome may be expected to be in full force.

Both China and the Philippines (like North Korea) have political situations where the legitimacy of governments may appear to be threatened. China is voting in a new generation of leadership and China’s Generation X is expected to dominate their new leadership cadres. Such a new generation of leadership might look to a foreign crisis to show its competence at rule to avoid any particular instability. Likewise, the Philippines has a leadership that is widely thought to be corrupt, and that might look for “foreign” successes to counteract domestic troubles. Things could go south rather quickly in the South China Sea, and it appears as if wisdom and discretion are at a premium. Where the ruthless demand for power and prestige, insecure regimes, and the lure of oil wealth coincide, a longstanding conflict like the Spratly Island conflict can grow hot, and that appears to be happening right now in front of our largely unaware eyes. This is a mess we should be paying much more attention to, given its possible consequences.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

[2] For China’s claims: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1947_Nanhai_Zhudao.png

For the claims of the Philippines: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ph_Territorial_Map.png

[3] http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-05-11/india/31668747_1_chinese-fishing-vessels-south-china-sea-china-s-territory

[4] http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-05-10/news/31653835_1_india-reports-indian-presence-south-china-sea

[5] http://www.businessinsider.com/scarborough-schoal-clinton-china-philippines-dispute-2012-5