20 August 3015

My Dear Brother Leonidas,

I write to you with urgent news that has developed over the past week and that has significant implications for our nation’s security and for the political situation at court. The border between our nation and our neighbor has been effectively sealed as a result of Bravian military forces and their allies taking control of the border crossing points during the ongoing conflict. This development has created considerable anxiety at court and has intensified the political debates about our relationship with Bravia that we have been monitoring with such concern.

Let me provide you with a systematic account of what has occurred, what the current situation is, and what the political implications appear to be.

On the Border Closure

Approximately ten days ago, our border posts along the frontier with our neighbor ceased normal operations. Initial reports were confused—some suggested that our neighbor had closed the border from their side, others that there had been some kind of military incident. Within a few days, however, the situation became clearer: Bravian forces, operating in coordination with their Fremen allies and apparently with forces from some of their other allied nations, had advanced to and occupied the border crossing points on our neighbor’s side.

The Bravian forces did not cross into our territory, Leonidas. This is a point I must emphasize because there has been considerable confusion and alarm about whether we were being invaded or threatened. The Bravian forces positioned themselves on our neighbor’s side of the border and sent word through our border guards that the crossings were being closed “for security purposes during ongoing military operations” and that they would remain closed “until such time as the conflict is resolved and normal peaceful conditions can be restored.”

Our border guards reported that the Bravian officers they interacted with were courteous and professional, that they made clear they had no hostile intentions toward our nation, and that they expected the border closure to be temporary. However, they also made clear that the closure was not negotiable and that no traffic would be permitted across the border in either direction until Bravian military authorities determined it was safe to reopen crossings.

His Majesty’s government immediately sent envoys to the border to assess the situation and to communicate with the Bravian forces. These envoys reported that the Bravian military presence was substantial—several thousand troops, well-equipped and well-organized, with clear defensive positions established on their side of the border. They also reported seeing forces that appeared to be Fremen (identified by their distinctive appearance and equipment) as well as forces that our envoys believed might be from one or more of Bravia’s landlocked allied nations, though they could not confirm this with certainty.

The Bravian commander at the main border crossing, a general whose name I have recorded as Erikson (possibly the same family as the merchant Lysander encountered in our port city), met with our envoys and provided the following explanation:

Bravian forces are conducting military operations throughout our neighbor’s territory to eliminate what they term “residual military capabilities and hostile government structures.” These operations have been proceeding systematically from coastal regions inland, and Bravian forces have now reached the border areas adjacent to our territory.

The border has been closed to prevent any remnants of our neighbor’s military or government from fleeing across the border into our territory, where they might seek refuge or from where they might attempt to continue resistance. The Bravians characterized this as a standard security measure during military operations and expressed regret for any inconvenience to our nation but stated that security considerations must take precedence.

The border will remain closed until Bravian military authorities are satisfied that our neighbor’s capacity for military resistance has been completely eliminated and that new governing arrangements have been established that ensure peaceful and stable conditions. The Bravians could not or would not provide a specific timeline for when this might occur, stating only that “these matters take as long as they take” and that “thoroughness is more important than speed.”

The Bravians emphasized that they have no hostile intentions toward our nation, that they respect our sovereignty and our borders, and that they hope to restore normal border operations as quickly as circumstances permit. However, they also made clear that the decision about when to reopen the border rests entirely with Bravian military authorities and is not subject to negotiation.

Leonidas, I provide you with this detailed account because I know you will need to understand precisely what has occurred and what was said. The situation is not one of immediate military threat to our nation—the Bravians have made their non-hostile intentions clear and have scrupulously avoided any incursion into our territory. However, it is nonetheless a dramatic demonstration of Bravian power and of our complete inability to influence events that directly affect our security and our economic interests.

On the Economic Impact

The border closure has had immediate economic consequences. Trade with our neighbor, while never enormous, was nonetheless significant in certain sectors. Merchants who dealt in cross-border trade have been suddenly cut off from their markets and their suppliers. Some goods that we imported from our neighbor are no longer available, creating shortages and price increases. And there is considerable uncertainty about when or whether normal trade relationships can be restored.

More significantly, the border closure has disrupted certain transportation routes that passed through our neighbor’s territory. Goods that were being shipped to or from regions beyond our neighbor must now find alternative routes, which in many cases means shipping by sea rather than overland. This is more expensive and time-consuming, and it has created bottlenecks at our ports that are struggling to handle the increased volume.

The Minister of Commerce has estimated that the border closure, if it continues for more than a few weeks, could reduce our trade revenues by perhaps ten to fifteen percent, which would have significant implications for the treasury and for our ability to fund government operations. His Majesty’s government is therefore under considerable pressure to find ways to either reopen the border or to mitigate the economic impact through alternative arrangements.

On the Political Impact at Court

Leonidas, the political impact of this development has been dramatic and is still unfolding. The border closure has crystallized all of the latent anxieties about Bravian power that have been simmering beneath the surface of court politics for months. I will attempt to describe the main fault lines and the principal actors as I understand them:

The Anti-Accommodation Faction (led by Baron Rothwell):

Baron Rothwell and his allies have seized upon the border closure as vindication of their warnings about Bravian expansionism and about the dangers of the accommodation policy. They are arguing that the Bravians are demonstrating exactly the kind of high-handed disregard for the interests of neighboring nations that they predicted, that our treaty with Bravia has not protected our interests, and that we should be preparing for the possibility that Bravia will continue expanding until they threaten our own territory directly.

Baron Rothwell gave a speech in the Lords’ Council three days ago in which he argued that “Bravia has shown its true nature—a military power that takes what it wants and cares nothing for the concerns of its neighbors. Today they close our border without consultation or consideration. Tomorrow they may decide that our territory would better serve Bravian interests than our own sovereignty. We must prepare ourselves for this eventuality rather than continuing to delude ourselves that accommodation and good relations will protect us.”

This speech was received with considerable applause from his faction, and I am told that His Majesty was present and listened with a grave expression that suggested he took the arguments seriously even if he did not endorse them.

The Pro-Accommodation Faction (led by Lord Ashford and supported by Lady Margrave):

Lord Ashford, who has been a consistent supporter of the accommodation policy, responded to Baron Rothwell by arguing that the border closure actually demonstrates why maintaining good relations with Bravia is essential. He pointed out that the Bravians did not invade our territory, did not threaten our security, and explicitly expressed their intention to restore normal relations once their military operations are complete. He argued that our treaty relationship with Bravia is precisely what has ensured that Bravian military operations have not threatened our interests directly.

Lord Ashford’s essential argument is that in a region where Bravia is the dominant military power, we have two choices: maintain good relations that give us some voice in how Bravian actions affect our interests, or risk being treated as potential enemies whose concerns need not be considered. He argues that the border closure, while inconvenient, could have been far worse if we were seen as hostile to Bravia rather than as a treaty partner.

Lady Margrave, speaking informally at a gathering I attended, made a similar argument in more vivid terms: “The Bravians are showing us their power, yes. But they are also showing us their restraint. They could have swept across the border and occupied our territory if they chose to. They could have demanded we provide support for their military operations. They could have treated us as enemies. Instead, they have simply closed a border temporarily while they complete operations in our neighbor’s territory. This is not aggression toward us—it is indifference to our preferences, which is quite different. And it demonstrates why maintaining good relations matters—so that we are not simply ignored when Bravian interests and ours diverge.”

The Radical Reform Faction (no clear leader):

A third group, which I mentioned in previous correspondence, has also found in this crisis an opportunity to advance their arguments. These are the individuals who believe that Bravian ways should be emulated rather than merely accommodated. They are arguing that the border closure demonstrates Bravian efficiency and decisiveness, that Bravia’s military success shows the superiority of their system, and that our own survival requires us to adopt significant reforms along Bravian lines.

This faction is smaller and less organized than the other two, but their arguments have gained some traction, particularly among younger courtiers and among some merchants who have had positive experiences dealing with Bravian traders. I heard one young man at a recent gathering declare that “perhaps if we were more like the Bravians—more efficient, more organized, more willing to act decisively—we would not find ourselves at the mercy of events we cannot control.”

Such sentiments are still minority views, but they are being expressed more openly than they were even a few weeks ago, and they are creating a sense that fundamental questions about our political system are being raised by the changed circumstances we face.

His Majesty’s Position:

His Majesty has not taken a clear public position on these debates, which I interpret as indicating that he is genuinely uncertain about the best course forward. He has called for calm and has emphasized that the border closure is a temporary inconvenience rather than a permanent threat. He has reaffirmed his confidence in the treaty you negotiated and has stated that we will continue to seek good relations with Bravia while also protecting our own interests.

However, I am told by those closer to His Majesty than I am that he is deeply troubled by the border closure and by what it reveals about the limitations of our sovereignty when a much more powerful neighbor decides to act without consulting us. He is apparently asking his advisors difficult questions about our military capabilities, our economic vulnerabilities, and our strategic options if Bravia continues to expand and to act unilaterally in ways that affect our interests.

Crown Prince Alexander, with whom I met recently (as I mentioned in a previous letter), has been somewhat more forthright. He told me privately that he views the border closure as “a wake-up call” that should spur us to think more seriously about our position in a region increasingly dominated by Bravia. He said that “wishful thinking and comfortable assumptions will not serve us well” and that “we must be clear-eyed about the world as it is rather than as we wish it to be.”

I took this as indicating that Crown Prince Alexander is moving toward a more realistic assessment of our situation, though I am not certain whether his realism will lead him to support closer accommodation with Bravia or to support efforts to resist Bravian influence more actively.

On Our Family’s Position

Leonidas, our family’s position has become both more important and more vulnerable as a result of these developments. On one hand, you are our nation’s principal source of expertise about Bravia and our primary channel for understanding Bravian intentions and for communicating our concerns to the Bravian government. This makes you and your work increasingly valuable to His Majesty’s government.

On the other hand, the intensification of anxiety about Bravia has also intensified suspicions about those perceived as too sympathetic to Bravian interests. Baron Rothwell and his allies have not attacked you directly—they recognize that you are executing the policy His Majesty approved—but they have made pointed comments about “those who have spent too much time in Bravia and may have lost perspective on our own nation’s interests.”

I have been working quietly to counter such insinuations by emphasizing your faithful service, your honest reporting, and your consistent efforts to protect our nation’s interests even as you seek to understand Bravian perspectives. Lady Margrave has been particularly helpful in this regard, using her considerable influence to ensure that you are seen as a valuable asset rather than as compromised by excessive sympathy with Bravia.

However, I must tell you candidly that our position is precarious. If the political winds shift strongly toward confrontation with Bravia, those associated with accommodation policies may face severe criticism or worse. And if they shift strongly toward capitulation to Bravian demands, those who have advocated for careful management of the relationship may be blamed for not doing more to prevent our current subordinate position.

We must navigate carefully, Leonidas. We must continue to provide honest information and sound analysis while also being alert to how our counsel is received and how our family’s reputation is affected by the changing political climate.

On What You Should Do

Given these developments, I believe you should take the following actions:

First, you should seek clarification from the Bravian government about the border closure—how long it is likely to last, what conditions must be met for the border to reopen, and whether there are any measures our government can take to facilitate reopening. This information will be valuable to His Majesty’s government and will demonstrate that you are actively protecting our interests.

Second, you should emphasize to the Bravians that the border closure, while understood as a security measure, is having significant economic impact on our nation and is creating political difficulties that could affect our ability to maintain the good relations both nations desire. You need not threaten or demand—the Bravians would not respond well to such approaches—but you should ensure they understand that their actions have consequences for us and that we hope they will take our interests into account when making decisions that affect us.

Third, you should prepare contingency assessments for His Majesty’s government about potential future Bravian actions and their likely impact on our interests. The border closure has made clear that Bravia will act in its own interests without seeking our permission or even our input. We need to anticipate what other actions they might take and how we should respond to them. Your knowledge of Bravian capabilities and intentions makes you uniquely positioned to provide such assessments.

Fourth, you should carefully manage Lysander’s exposure to these events and his understanding of their implications. He is young and is still forming his views about Bravia and about diplomatic work generally. The border closure could be interpreted either as evidence of Bravian aggression or as evidence of Bravian power used with restraint. You must help him develop a nuanced understanding that acknowledges both the demonstration of power and the relative restraint with which that power has been exercised.

On the Installation Ceremony

I must also respond to your letters regarding the installation ceremony and Lysander’s arrival at the embassy. I was greatly relieved to learn that Lysander arrived safely and that he conducted himself well during the ceremony. Your assessment of his capabilities and his state of mind was exactly what I needed to hear—honest about both strengths and areas requiring careful guidance.

I am particularly grateful for your observation that Lysander shows “intellectual flexibility” and “moral seriousness” but may have “some tendency to idealize Bravian society.” This confirms my own reading of his letters to me, and it reassures me that you are watching carefully for the vulnerabilities I feared and that you are taking active steps to help him develop appropriate perspective.

Your graduated plan for his training seems well-designed. Beginning with observation and basic tasks while he develops his language skills and cultural understanding makes sense. I trust your judgment about when to increase his responsibilities and how quickly to do so. I ask only that you continue to keep me informed of his progress and of any concerns that arise.

The photograph you sent of Lysander standing on the balcony of his quarters was deeply moving to me. I have placed it in a frame on my desk where I can see it daily. He looks well in the photograph—serious but not troubled, as you said—and seeing him in his new surroundings helps me to imagine where he is and what his life is like there. I was less pleased to see how much you have aged since your departure, as you noted, but I recognize that the work you are doing exacts a toll and I am grateful you are willing to pay it in service to our family and our nation.

On What I Am Doing

I am continuing to maintain our family’s connections at court and to monitor the political situation carefully. I am preserving all correspondence as we discussed, with copies stored in multiple secure locations. I am maintaining my relationships with key figures like Lady Margrave and Crown Prince Alexander who may be important to our family’s position regardless of how political winds shift.

I am also beginning to think about more drastic contingency plans should the political situation deteriorate further. I have identified people in different regions whom I could turn to if it became necessary to leave the capital, and I have made quiet arrangements to have access to funds that are not dependent on governmental favor. I hope these preparations prove unnecessary, but I believe prudence requires them.

I am also in regular correspondence with Lysander, providing him with news from home and with the emotional support that only a mother can provide. I try to strike a balance in these letters between sharing important information and not burdening him with anxieties he can do nothing about from such a distance. It is difficult to know what to share and what to hold back, but I am doing my best.

In Conclusion

Leonidas, we are entering a new and more difficult phase of this situation. The border closure has made concrete what was previously abstract—that Bravia is now the dominant power in our region and that their actions shape our circumstances whether we like it or not. How our nation responds to this reality will determine our future security and prosperity, and how our family positions itself in relation to these responses will determine our fate.

I trust your judgment about how to navigate the diplomatic aspects of this situation. You understand Bravia better than anyone else in our nation, and you have demonstrated your ability to represent our interests effectively while maintaining good relations with the Bravians. Continue to do what you have been doing—provide honest analysis, work to protect our interests, and help our government understand the realities we face.

Watch over Lysander and help him develop into the diplomat we need him to be. And know that you have my complete trust and my unwavering support, whatever challenges we may face in the weeks and months ahead.

May God grant you wisdom and strength for the work you are doing.

Your devoted sister,

Elizabeth Smith

P.S. — Since writing the above, I have learned that His Majesty will be convening a special session of his advisory council next week to discuss the border situation and our relationship with Bravia more generally. I am told that your most recent dispatches will be reviewed during this session and that there will be significant discussion of policy options going forward.

I mention this because it means that whatever analysis and recommendations you provide in the near term will receive high-level attention and may significantly influence policy decisions. This is both an opportunity and a responsibility—an opportunity to shape policy in directions you believe are sound, and a responsibility to ensure that your counsel is as thoughtful and well-grounded as possible.

I do not know what recommendations you will make, and I do not presume to tell you what you should recommend. I trust your judgment on these matters far more than I trust my own. I simply wanted you to be aware that your words are being heard at the highest levels and that they matter greatly to the decisions our government will make.

E.S.