Executive Summary

Proposal. Linking a portion of federal transit funding to safety benchmarks would create incentives for agencies to reduce violent crime on buses, subways, and light rail. Benchmarks. A comparative look at violent incidents per 1 million unlinked passenger trips shows large variations across systems. Risks. High-incident systems (NYC Subway, Chicago CTA, Philadelphia SEPTA, Washington Metro) and smaller high-rate systems (St. Louis MetroLink, Baltimore MTA, Cleveland RTA) are most exposed. Recommendation. Conditional funding should be phased, proportionate, and coupled with technical assistance to avoid destabilizing already under-resourced transit systems.

I. National Context

FTA grants exceed $15 billion annually, distributed mainly by ridership and service data. Violent crime on public transit has increased post-pandemic, undermining rider confidence. Conditionality could ensure federal dollars support both access and safety.

II. Benchmarking Safety: Illustrative Sample Data

Metric: Reported violent crimes (homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault) per 1 million passenger trips.

City/System

Annual Ridership (approx.)

Reported Violent Crimes (annual)

Incidents per 1M Trips

Risk Tier

New York City Subway (MTA)

1.7 billion

2,200

1.3

High-volume, high total

Chicago CTA (rail + bus)

280 million

700

2.5

High-rate, medium volume

Philadelphia SEPTA

180 million

600

3.3

High-rate

Washington DC Metro (WMATA)

160 million

400

2.5

Medium-high

Los Angeles Metro (rail + bus)

270 million

300

1.1

Medium

San Francisco BART

40 million

120

3.0

Small but high-rate

St. Louis MetroLink

25 million

100

4.0

Very high-rate

Baltimore MTA

70 million

180

2.6

Medium-high

Cleveland RTA

20 million

60

3.0

High-rate

Sources: FTA National Transit Database, FBI Uniform Crime Reports, local agency safety reports (2019–2023 averages). Figures are rounded and for illustrative benchmarking only.

III. Funding Conditionality Framework

Tiered approach based on benchmarks:

Tier 1: <1.0 incidents per 1M trips → Full federal funding, eligibility for bonus safety grants (e.g., LA Metro). Tier 2: 1.0–2.5 incidents per 1M trips → Conditional monitoring; must submit safety improvement plan (e.g., NYC MTA). Tier 3: 2.5–3.5 incidents per 1M trips → Up to 5–10% of formula grants tied to annual reductions (e.g., CTA, SEPTA, WMATA, Baltimore MTA). Tier 4: >3.5 incidents per 1M trips → Up to 15% of grants tied to benchmarks; automatic federal technical assistance (e.g., St. Louis, Cleveland).

IV. Benefits of Benchmarked Conditionality

Clarity. Objective ratios prevent selective targeting of specific agencies. Comparability. Agencies can track themselves against peers, promoting best-practice sharing. Transparency. Riders and policymakers see clear safety standards linked to federal dollars.

V. Risks and Mitigation

Underreporting bias. Agencies may reclassify incidents. → Mitigation: Require third-party audits. Equity concerns. High-crime, low-income cities face funding risk. → Mitigation: Pair conditionality with increased technical support. Security overreach. Risk of heavy-handed policing. → Mitigation: Encourage non-police safety ambassadors, environmental design, and mental health co-response.

VI. Cities and Systems Most at Risk

Most exposed: St. Louis MetroLink, Cleveland RTA, SEPTA, and BART—due to high per-trip incident rates. High-profile but resilient: NYC Subway—large totals, but lower relative rate. Emerging risk: Chicago CTA and Baltimore MTA—mid-sized ridership with climbing rates.

VII. Recommendations

Adopt a tiered benchmark system. Tie 5–15% of funding to performance, scaled by risk tier. Provide technical assistance. Target smaller high-rate systems with federally funded safety innovation pilots. Annual transparency report. Require FTA to publish comparative benchmarks and progress. Incentivize best practices. Offer competitive grants for agencies achieving sustained improvements. Balance enforcement. Encourage community-centered safety strategies alongside policing.

VIII. Conclusion

Benchmarking violent incidents per 1 million passenger trips offers a transparent, scalable way to link federal transit dollars to safety. This approach balances accountability with support, helping the nation’s most vulnerable systems improve while ensuring public confidence in federal investment.