The current heir to the throne in Thailand is a complex and uncertain matter. King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who became King Rama X in 2016 upon the death of his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, has not formally designated an heir apparent. Here’s a breakdown based on available information:

• Prince Dipangkorn Rasmijoti is the only officially recognized son of King Maha Vajiralongkorn by his third wife, Srirasmi Suwadee. Born in 2005, he has been referred to as the heir presumptive. However, there are rumors and reports suggesting he might have developmental disorders, which could impact his ability to ascend the throne. Despite this, under the 1924 Palace Law of Succession, he remains a candidate to succeed his father, although no official declaration has been made by the King.
• Princess Bajrakitiyabha, the eldest daughter of King Vajiralongkorn, was widely viewed as a likely heir before she collapsed in December 2022 from a heart condition. Her current status remains uncertain as she has been in a coma, and there have been no updates confirming her recovery. Although the 1974 constitutional amendment allows for a woman to ascend the throne, her current health situation casts doubt on her potential succession.
• Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, one of King Vajiralongkorn’s sons from his second marriage, returned to Thailand after nearly three decades in exile in 2023. His potential as an heir is under question given that he grew up in the United States and that his father and mother had a very public falling out. He is currently engaging in a charm offensive in Thailand to demonstrate his fitness for the throne but the jury is out on whether the king or the other interested parties (see below) would see him as a suitable king.

Thai royal succession is governed by a blend of tradition, law, and political dynamics, making it a complex process. Here’s a detailed look at how succession works in Thailand:

Legal Framework:

• 1924 Palace Law of Succession: This law, enacted during the reign of King Rama VI, stipulates the rules for succession. The key points include:
  • The throne should be passed to the eldest son of the King; if there is no son, then to the eldest grandson.
  • If there is no suitable male descendant, the throne could go to a daughter or granddaughter, but only in the absence of male heirs.
  • The King has the power to appoint any suitable male descendant from the Chakri Dynasty as his successor.
• 1974 Constitutional Amendment: This amendment provided for the possibility of a female monarch, stating that the National Assembly could approve the succession of a daughter if there are no suitable male descendants.

Process of Succession:

1. Nomination by the King: The King can nominate his successor through a Royal Command. If no nomination is made, or if the nominated successor is deemed unfit, the Privy Council steps in.
2. Privy Council’s Role: In the absence of a named successor, the Privy Council, a body of advisors to the King, will present a candidate to the National Assembly.
3. National Assembly’s Approval: The candidate must be approved by a resolution of both houses of the National Assembly in a joint sitting. The approval must be by at least two-thirds of the total number of members.
4. Proclamation: Once approved, the President of the National Assembly proclaims the new monarch.

Cultural and Political Considerations:

• Dynastic Continuity: There’s a strong cultural emphasis on maintaining the Chakri Dynasty, which has ruled since 1782.
• Public and Elite Consensus: While the legal framework is clear, the actual succession often depends on a broader consensus among the Thai elite, including military leaders, senior bureaucrats, and influential families. Public sentiment, though less formally recognized in the process, can influence outcomes in modern Thailand.
• Stability and Legitimacy: The monarchy’s role in Thai society is not just ceremonial; it’s seen as a stabilizing force. Thus, the successor’s perceived ability to maintain this role is crucial.

Recent Succession:

• King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s Accession: When King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away in 2016, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn was named King Rama X, but only after a brief delay, where he asked for time to mourn his father. This was seen as an unusual but respectful gesture, highlighting the blend of tradition and personal choice in modern succession.

Challenges and Uncertainties:

• Heir Apparent: The current situation with no officially declared heir apparent introduces uncertainty. The health, capability, and public perception of potential heirs like Prince Dipangkorn Rasmijoti, Princess Bajrakitiyabha, and even Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, play into the dynamics of future succession.
• Political Climate: Thailand’s political landscape, marked by coups, protests, and shifts towards or away from democracy, also influences how succession might unfold, as the monarchy’s role remains pivotal in national politics.

Thai royal succession, thus, combines legal stipulations with cultural reverence, political maneuvering, and the personal choices of the reigning monarch, making it a unique and sometimes unpredictable process.