Escape From Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray And What We Can Do About It, by Erica Thompson

In many ways, this book is a product of its time, and unhappily so. The book was written by the author during the period of Covid, particularly when grossly inaccurate models of Covid transmission and vaccine benefits were being presented and the economy of much of the world was greatly harmed by politically motivated scare tactics aimed by grossly ineffective public health which, for many people (myself included), greatly lowered our trust in those political figures who sought to weaponize “the science” against freedom and those who opposed hypocritical double standards enforced but not obeyed by the powers that be. Similar problems haunt climate modeling, as the author is aware of, and comments on. Yet while this book could have been a triumphant call to overthrow the tyranny of bad mathematical models that are viewed as being unaccountable to mere mortals and manipulated by bureaucrats and officeholders, the author spends most of this book talking out of both sides of her mouth, with diminishing returns as the book moves on. The author recognizes the serious and glaring flaws of mathematical models and the harm that such models do to the legitimacy of political leaders and of scientists in general, yet her insights are greatly limited by the fact that she views leftist diversity concerns as the main problem rather than the inherent dodginess of the progressive project to control the world through mastery of science, technology, and the politics of control.

There is no shortage of ambition in the task that the author has chosen for herself, but there is an extreme lack of humility and understanding in it. While on the one hand the author recognizes that there are a great many people who oppose modeling efforts on principle, especially when they come backed with coercive political power in favor of dodgy and immoral social causes pushed by corrupt Progressive governments, the author’s ability to criticize these efforts is hindered by the fact that she shares many of the Progressive concerns of those politicians and bureaucrats whose mania for models has come under such intense and unrelenting scrutiny. In the author’s view, the progressivism of contemporary science modeling is not far enough in that it still focuses too much on the white, educated, and technologically developed part of the world and not enough on the subaltern oppressed masses of humanity whose needs are little considered by modelers. The author’s attempts to try to build trust and legitimacy with those who oppose the social engineering efforts of contemporary modelers are not helped at all by her attempts to score political points against British Conservative Party leaders during Covid times as well as right-of-center populists elsewhere, which demonstrates that the author is a part of the problem and not a part of the solution to the problems of Model Land.

This book is between 200 and 250 pages and it is divided into ten chapters. The author begins by locating model land (1) and then discussing how models encourage people to think inside the box (2), which is a common but almost universally decried way of thinking. The author discusses how models serve as metaphors for the world, simplifications that try to deal with essential characteristics that provide worthwhile insight while breaking down if viewed as needing a full correspondence with what they are modeling (3). The author then discusses how many models seek to expand beyond their territory, in order to find the cat that most looks like a dog because no dogs are included in the model itself (4), which is admittedly a dodgy proposition. The author then discusses the nature of fiction, prediction, and conviction in models and how their information is presented, a process that is often dishonest in the way that models are presented by the media and used by governments (5). This leads to a discussion of the accountability gap between the making and using of models and the lack of accountability that anyone has in dealing with the sometimes negative results of relying on the models (6). The author then discusses the way that model makers and those who trumpet their supposed achievements are often viewed and view themselves as masters of the universe rather than meddlesome fools (7). The author discusses the development of weather and climate modeling (8), the problems of keeping models totally under control (9), and how it is that people should escape from model land in order to make sure that models are sufficiently responsive to the real world in better ways (10). The book ends with acknowledgments, suggestions for further reading, and an index.