End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, And The Path Of Political Disintegration, by Peter Turchin

To a large extent, I owe the formulation of my blog, Edge Induced Cohesion, to the writing of the author of this book and to my thoughts about it regarding the idea of asabiya in times of crisis. This particular book, though, does not deal with those forces like edge-induced cohesion that help to keep societies together, but rather on factors that lead to state collapse. And while this particular book may not serve to inspire the title of my blog, the ideas that the author has mirror the ones that I have been pondering and reflecting on for a few years now with very little satisfaction. What makes this book even more intriguing is that the author identifies no obvious solution to avoid the pain that we see in contemporary society. Either we can expect a crisis–up to and including civil war–that will somehow settle the problems that we face, or we may find ourselves in a state or more or less permanent crisis with popular misery and too many corrupt elites, which is not a state that I want to see continue for very long.

In terms of its contents, this book is about 300 pages long or so. The book begins with a preface. The first part of the book then discusses the cliodynamics of power, with chapters on elites, elite production, and the road to crisis (1) as well as a look at some lessons of history (2). The second part of the book then discusses some drivers of societal instability, including revolting peasants (3), radical revolutionaries (4), the ruling class (5), as well as some explorations of why the United States is a plutocracy (6) and more or less always has been. The third part of the book examines societal crises and their aftermaths, including a discussion of state breakdown (7), histories of the near future (8), as well as the wealth pump and the future of democracy (9). After acknowledgements, the author includes three chapters in an appendix, looking at cliodynamics as a new science of history (A1), a discussion of a fictional historical macroscope (A2), and the structural dynamic approach to history (A3). The book then ends with notes, a bibliography, and an index.

While it is possible that the author and I would consider ourselves on opposite sides of the current political crisis, the author appears to put himself in a point of view that places him apart from the conflict. Like many people, the author tends to think little about the importance of social issues and is more concerned about economics as being the true aspect of self-interest that people have. I happen to disagree with the author’s position that social issues are not important. Nevertheless, it is probably significant that the author thinks of himself as a moderate who is beyond the rising extremism on both sides that threatens the legitimacy of the United States government. The author’s fears and concerns do not at all appear to be overblown. The author views there as being a 10% chance of there being a civil war during the course of the 2020s, which seems optimistic. The author is also aware that as a wonky person engaged in a big data initiative, that what he deals with is esoteric enough that no one with any kind of social or political power is going to take things seriously until they actually happen, which perhaps started as a result of the chaos that occurred in 2020 and has continued since then. Taking something seriously and being able to know what to do to deal with a problem and actually doing what needs to be done–including getting rid of the “wealth pump” that continues to impoverish ordinary Americans (and people in other countries) are very different things. I am not sanguine that contemporary elites are going to be able to restrain themselves from evil, which would be necessary to keep disaster from threatening us all.