As someone who grew up in Florida, the reality of the aftermath of the Cuban Revolution is one of the aspects of the context of growing up. Throughout the course of my life I have met many people who were themselves either refugees from Castro’s Cuba, or the children of refugees. As someone whose life has been shaped by the experience of involuntary exile, and the shock and trauma it creates, I wonder what will happen for the families of Cuban refugees in light of the efforts by the United States and Raul Castro to normalize relations between the United States and Cuba. At first, it was fairly easy to be entirely critical of such efforts as demonstrating the moral cowardice of our own political leaders, yet recent stories [1] indicate that it also has elements of a negotiated surrender on the part of Cuba.

Raul Castro’s recent comments about potentially coming back to the Catholic Church mark an interesting move to end Cuba’s isolation on terms of accepting the legitimacy of Catholicism, which has long been a sore point in Cuba. Given the need of the Castro regime for internal legitimacy in the absence of the edge induced cohesion that results from seeking to unify in the face of a common enemy (namely, the United States), it makes sense that there would be a rapprochement between Cuba’s government and the Roman Catholic Church, given the mutual benefits that result. After all, Cuba has a strong historical tie to the Catholic Church as a result of its Spanish colonial history, and the Catholic Church has a strong tradition of support for the political status quo in many countries, making this a clear win-win situation for a regime in need of some backing, even if it means waffling a bit about one’s commitment to Communism. Only the Dali Lama and a few American tenured professors truly believe in Communism as anything but a way of ensuring dictatorial power anyway, and that can be done just as easily through other means, as Mr. Castro is finding out.

What does this mean for the area where I grew up? Normalization of relations between Cuba and the United States could be a boon for Florida, as Tampa, Key West, and Miami (among many other places) are convenient ports of call close to Havana. For reasons of history and geography, the United States has long has the sort of possessiveness towards Cuba that China has towards Taiwan. Cuba will have to work hard to keep itself away from American hegemony, even as the refugees and descendents of refugees will have to decide whether and when to return to Cuba, at least in part, perhaps keeping a foot in both countries. Such decisions will be made one by one as Cuba opens up to the world, and seeks to encourage Yanquis to spend their money but not seek to dominate or control. This will be a delicate dance between two long-estranged neighbors only 90 miles apart across the Florida Strait. It promises to be a fascinating process, and one fraught with complications. Who knows what will come of it?

[1] http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/10/europe/italy-raul-castro-pope-francis-meeting/index.html