1. Executive Summary

Zephyrhills, in eastern Pasco County, has shifted from a small, largely seasonal retirement town into one of the faster-growing small cities in Florida. Between roughly 2000 and 2023, its population grew from about 11,000 to more than 20,800 residents, and estimates for 2025 put the figure around 23,500—an increase of more than one-third since the 2020 Census. 

That growth is powered by a combination of regional migration toward the Tampa Bay–Orlando corridor, relatively affordable housing, a strong base of 55+ and seasonal communities, local employment anchors such as Zephyrhills® Natural Spring Water and the municipal airport/skydiving complex, and improved transportation connectivity along the SR 54/56 corridor. 

At the same time, Zephyrhills has imposed a temporary moratorium on new residential annexations and rezonings to cope with water-supply and infrastructure constraints—a reminder that growth is not simply an opportunity, but a planning and resource-management challenge. 

This paper:

Traces the demographic and spatial growth of Zephyrhills Analyzes the economic, demographic, and infrastructure drivers behind that growth Assesses constraints—especially water, transportation, and land-use patterns Outlines plausible expansion scenarios and strategic recommendations

2. Context: Where Zephyrhills Fits in Florida’s Growth Story

Zephyrhills is a city of about 9.6 square miles in east-central Pasco County, northeast of Tampa, roughly midway in the Tampa–Lakeland–Orlando triangle.  It sits just east of the booming SR 54/56 corridor and functions as both a distinct small city and an exurban community within the broader Tampa Bay region.

Pasco County itself is one of Florida’s fastest-growing counties, with population growth of around 15–24% over the last decade depending on the exact time window.  Regional media increasingly use Zephyrhills as a case study of the “Florida growth story”: rapid in-migration, new subdivisions, pressure on water resources, and debates over how much and how fast to grow. 

3. Demographic and Spatial Growth

3.1 Population trends

Key population milestones (approximate):

2000: ~11,300 residents  2010: Census count ~13,300  2020: Census count ~17,300 (city proper)  2023: Estimated 20,883 (about +21% vs. 2020 and +85% vs. 2000)  2025: Estimated 23,541, growing at roughly 5.5% per year 

Two notable features of the demographic profile:

High share of older residents: In 2020 roughly 36% of residents were 65 or older, far above the U.S. average, reflecting Zephyrhills’ longstanding reputation as a retirement and “snowbird” destination.  Increasing diversity and in-migration: The Hispanic share nearly doubled between 2010 and 2020, and most overall growth is from migration rather than natural increase, aligning with statewide patterns of in-migration from other U.S. states and abroad. 

3.2 Seasonal population

Beyond year-round residents, Zephyrhills hosts a disproportionately large seasonal population. One local senior-park operator describes more than 150 senior parks in the area, with winter months seeing the population multiply several times over. 

This seasonal influx:

Stabilizes many local businesses that cater to retirees and RV travelers Supports a dense ecosystem of 55+ RV and manufactured-home communities  Complicates infrastructure planning, since demand for water, roads, and services spikes during peak season

3.3 Physical expansion

Zephyrhills’ mapped urban area shows gradual outward expansion from the historic core along 5th Avenue and into Zephyrhills West, North, and South, with a mix of traditional subdivisions and manufactured-home/RV communities.

Key spatial patterns:

Annexation-driven growth into unincorporated Pasco County, especially to the south and west, where new subdivisions and parks can tie into city utilities.  Airport-adjacent development surrounding Zephyrhills Municipal Airport and its industrial park.  Corridor growth along US-301 and connectors to SR 54/56, positioning Zephyrhills as a gateway between Tampa’s suburbs and interior Florida. 

4. Core Drivers of Growth

4.1 Regional migration and housing affordability

Tampa is one of America’s faster-growing major cities, and the broader metro has experienced a pandemic-era influx of residents seeking lower taxes, a warm climate, and remote-work flexibility. 

As housing costs have climbed in Tampa and closer-in suburbs, Zephyrhills has offered:

Relatively lower land and housing prices A small-town feel with nearby urban amenities A large inventory of manufactured homes and RV lots, which lowers the entry cost for retirees and working-class households

This “price differential plus lifestyle” effect is one of the strongest structural drivers of Zephyrhills’ population increase.

4.2 Retirement and 55+ community clustering

Zephyrhills brands itself informally as a haven for retirees and snowbirds:

Multiple RV and manufactured-home resorts explicitly target 55+ residents.  Marketing emphasizes golf, lakes, and rural-suburban tranquility within driving distance to Tampa and Orlando attractions. 

The clustering of senior parks creates agglomeration benefits:

Prospective residents can compare many communities in one trip. Specialized medical, leisure, and service providers find a critical mass of customers. Word-of-mouth within retiree networks reinforces Zephyrhills’ visibility.

This retiree ecosystem both stabilizes the tax base and drives demand for healthcare, retail, hospitality, and home-services employment.

4.3 Employment anchors and brand visibility

Zephyrhills® Natural Spring Water

The bottled water brand—drawing from nearby springs—has operated in Florida since the 1960s and positions itself as a community-supporting employer, citing job creation, local donations, and disaster-relief contributions in Florida. 

While not the sole economic driver, the plant and associated logistics:

Provide manufacturing and distribution jobs Anchor Zephyrhills’ identity as the “City of Pure Water” Increase name recognition statewide, indirectly aiding tourism and in-migration

Zephyrhills Municipal Airport and Skydive City

The municipal airport is a multi-use facility with:

A 5,000-foot runway, fuel services, hangars, maintenance, flight instruction, and an adjoining industrial park Recreational amenities like an 18-hole golf course attached to the complex  A globally known skydiving center (Skydive City), which attracts visitors from all 50 states and more than 80 countries. 

These assets support:

Tourism (skydiving, RV visitors, events) Light industrial and aviation-related employment A distinctive lifestyle brand that differentiates Zephyrhills from generic exurbs

4.4 Transportation and regional connectivity

The SR 54/56 corridor west of Zephyrhills has been a major focus of growth planning in Pasco County. FDOT and the county have pursued multiple studies for expanding roadway capacity, managed lanes, and transit infrastructure along this east-west spine, linking US-19 on the Gulf Coast to US-301 at Zephyrhills. 

The proposed extension of SR 56 eastward from US-301 toward US-98 would further integrate Zephyrhills into regional networks, dramatically improving travel times to Lakeland and I-4. 

This connectivity:

Makes Zephyrhills a more viable home base for commuters into Tampa, Wesley Chapel, and other employment nodes Encourages distribution and logistics firms to consider Zephyrhills for warehouses or depots Raises land values along key transport corridors, incentivizing annexation and development

5. Policy, Planning, and Governance Drivers

5.1 Comprehensive planning and growth visions

Zephyrhills maintains a comprehensive plan that serves as a “blueprint for growth,” originally adopted and updated around 2010 to guide development through 2025.  The city has since launched Zephyrhills 2030 and “PlanZephyrhills 2035” planning initiatives to update goals, objectives, and policies based on new data and public input. 

These plans emphasize:

Managed growth tied to infrastructure capacity Protection of natural resources, especially water Reinforcement of downtown as a mixed-use, walkable core Strategic annexation rather than sprawling leap-frog development

The existence of updated long-range plans is itself a growth driver, signaling predictability to developers and residents even when specific policies (e.g., moratoria) temporarily slow approvals.

5.2 Water-supply constraints and growth moratorium

Zephyrhills is entirely dependent on the Floridan Aquifer, the same groundwater system feeding Florida’s major springs. Statewide, these springs face increasing stress from nutrient pollution, over-extraction, and climate change-related shifts in rainfall. 

Locally, Zephyrhills’ city council in 2023 approved a year-long moratorium on certain new residential annexations, rezonings, and development applications to stay within water-use permit limits while seeking expanded withdrawals and infrastructure upgrades. 

This illustrates a key dynamic:

Growth drives water demand, pushing the city up against regulatory caps. Water limits drive policy innovation, including re-use systems, conservation measures, and more cautious annexation.

How effectively Zephyrhills navigates water politics—especially in light of bottled-water extraction controversies statewide—will heavily shape its future expansion. 

6. Expansion Prospects

6.1 Spatial directions of likely expansion

West and Southwest:

Proximity to SR 54/56 and established growth areas like Wesley Chapel make westward annexation and infill highly attractive. Expect continued residential subdivisions and some commercial/light industrial along US-301 and connectors as transportation investments mature. 

South:

Existing senior parks and RV communities in Zephyrhills South form a base for further 55+ and mixed-age development, provided infrastructure keeps pace. 

Airport/Industrial Zones:

The municipal airport’s industrial park, skydiving destination, and available land position the southeast quadrant for aviation-related, recreational, and light industrial growth. 

6.2 Economic and demographic scenarios

Scenario A: High-Growth / Exurban Boom

Assumptions:

SR 56 extension and other road projects proceed on schedule. Water-use permits are increased, and major infrastructure upgrades are funded. Tampa Bay region maintains strong in-migration and job growth.

Implications:

Zephyrhills’ population could plausibly exceed 30,000 in the 2030s, maintaining annual growth rates near current levels for a decade.  Risks include traffic congestion, school crowding, loss of rural character, and greater vulnerability to water shortages if aquifer management lags.

Scenario B: Managed-Growth / Infrastructure-Constrained

Assumptions:

Moratoria and concurrency standards keep growth tied to water, sewer, and roadway capacity. The city emphasizes redevelopment, infill, and higher-density mixed-use downtown rather than continuous outward sprawl.

Implications:

Growth continues but stabilizes at moderate rates, perhaps 2–3% annually. Quality of life may remain high, with walkable downtown improvements and preserved green space. This scenario aligns most closely with the intent behind Zephyrhills’ comprehensive planning initiatives. 

Scenario C: Constrained-Growth / Environmental Pushback

Assumptions:

Statewide pressure to protect springs and the Floridan Aquifer results in stricter extraction limits and tighter controls on development.  Infrastructure funding lags behind need; residents resist higher taxes or density.

Implications:

Population growth slows significantly; stagnation or light growth is possible. Property values may plateau if development opportunities dry up, though scarcity could buoy certain segments. Zephyrhills would need a stronger focus on economic diversification (e.g., remote-work hubs, tourism, niche manufacturing) to sustain prosperity without high population growth.

6.3 Key constraints

Water supply & quality: The most immediate hard constraint; expansion depends on sustainable management of aquifer withdrawals and wastewater/reuse systems.  Transportation capacity: SR 54/56 may face congestion similar to other Florida growth corridors; poor transit options could intensify car dependence and bottlenecks.  Aging population: While retirees are an asset, an over-skewed age profile can strain healthcare and limit the local labor force unless counter-balanced by younger in-migrants.  Environmental regulation & perception: Public scrutiny of bottled-water extraction and spring health could shape both regulatory choices and Zephyrhills’ brand narrative. 

7. Strategic Recommendations

7.1 For city and county planners

Link annexation explicitly to water and infrastructure capacity Use tiered growth areas in the comprehensive plan, prioritizing infill and areas with existing utilities.  Accelerate reuse and conservation investments Expand reclaimed water networks for irrigation in senior parks and golf courses. Use tiered water pricing and incentives to reduce per-capita consumption, easing pressure on permits.  Diversify housing types Encourage townhomes, small-lot single-family, and gentle density increases near downtown and major corridors to house younger workers and families, not just retirees. Capitalize on the airport and skydiving cluster Zone surrounding lands for aviation-compatible industrial and recreational uses. Market Zephyrhills as a regional center for adventure sports, training, and light aviation manufacturing/maintenance. 

7.2 For economic and community development

Position Zephyrhills as an affordable, connected “third place” Promote co-working spaces and small-business incubators tapping remote workers who want small-town life with metro access. Leverage the retirement base for health and wellness industries Attract specialized clinics, wellness centers, and senior-oriented services that provide quality employment opportunities. Protect and market natural assets Partner with water-related businesses and environmental groups to promote responsible use of springs and aquifer resources, turning sustainability from a constraint into a branding advantage. 

7.3 For residents and civic organizations

Engage actively in PlanZephyrhills 2035 and subsequent updates to ensure growth reflects community priorities.  Support mixed-use, walkable downtown projects that retain small-town character while accommodating population growth. 

8. Conclusion

Zephyrhills’ rise from a quiet retirement town to a fast-growing small city encapsulates many of Florida’s broader trends: migration from other states, exurban expansion, the lure of sunshine and affordability, and mounting pressure on water and infrastructure.

Its future expansion will be shaped less by raw demand—of which there is plenty—and more by how deliberately the city manages water, transportation, land use, and its age and economic mix. A deliberate strategy that couples growth management with economic diversification and environmental stewardship can allow Zephyrhills to remain both a “City of Pure Water” and a thriving, livable community for decades to come.