Abstract

This white paper examines the phenomenon of informal proxy signals—specifically, the recurring observation that increased pizza orders near the Pentagon coincide with periods of heightened geopolitical tension—as a case study in how ordinary human behaviors leak information about opaque institutions. Using this example, the paper explores the nature of proxy indicators, their epistemic limits, their psychological and cultural functions, and their particular resonance for populations seeking regime change under authoritarian conditions, with reference to contemporary anxieties surrounding Iran.

1. Introduction: Seeing Power Sideways

Modern state power is deliberately opaque.

Decision-making in security institutions is hidden behind classification regimes, compartmentalization, and controlled messaging. Yet power, however abstracted, is still exercised by human beings operating under physical, temporal, and cognitive constraints.

Proxy signals emerge where human needs intersect with institutional stress. Food delivery, lighting patterns, traffic congestion, and scheduling anomalies become sideways views into systems designed not to be seen.

This paper argues that such signals—while epistemically weak—are culturally powerful, psychologically stabilizing, and analytically instructive.

2. Defining Proxy Signals

A proxy signal is an observable phenomenon that correlates with an unobservable internal process without directly measuring it.

Key characteristics:

Indirectness – the signal is not part of the process itself Human leakage – it arises from bodily or social necessity Repeatability – it appears across multiple historical cases Non-authoritativeness – it is never officially confirmed

Pizza orders near military or intelligence hubs are a paradigmatic example: they reflect extended working hours, compressed decision timelines, and on-site staffing surges, without revealing content or intent.

3. Why Pizza Became the Signal

Pizza, rather than any other food, occupies a unique structural niche:

Temporal elasticity – available late at night Collective efficiency – scalable to group consumption Logistical neutrality – no special clearance or planning Cultural normalization – unremarkable enough to avoid scrutiny

As a result, pizza becomes a reliable by-product of institutional strain, especially during crisis planning phases.

Importantly, this does not indicate what decision will be made—only that decision-making is underway.

4. Epistemic Limits: What Proxy Signals Do Not Tell Us

A critical distinction must be maintained:

Proxy signals do not predict outcomes They do not confirm action They do not validate rumors or timelines

They merely suggest attention, intensity, and duration.

Treating such signals as predictive intelligence is a category error. Treating them as contextual indicators is not.

5. Psychological Function: Why These Signals Matter

For individuals affected by authoritarian regimes, proxy signals serve three stabilizing roles:

5.1 Attention Assurance

They indicate that powerful external actors are not indifferent.

5.2 Process Legibility

They reframe geopolitics as deliberative rather than arbitrary.

5.3 Humanization of Power

They remind observers that institutions are staffed by people subject to fatigue, hunger, and constraint.

For someone hoping for regime change, these factors reduce existential uncertainty even in the absence of guarantees.

6. Cultural Transmission and Informal Literacy

The “pizza index” persists not because it is precise, but because it is teachable.

It spreads as:

Folklore among journalists Humor among analysts Reassurance among diaspora communities

In this sense, proxy signals function as civic myths with analytical content—narratives that allow ordinary people to reason about extraordinary power without succumbing to mysticism or despair.

7. Case Context: Iran and External Attention

In situations involving Iran, where:

internal information is unreliable propaganda is endemic external action has historically fluctuated

even weak signals of sustained foreign attention acquire disproportionate emotional weight.

They suggest not inevitability, but deliberation—a critical moral distinction for those living under or fleeing coercive systems.

8. Ethical Considerations

There is an ethical responsibility in discussing proxy signals:

Avoid overstating certainty Avoid promising intervention Avoid converting human suffering into spectacle

Properly framed, proxy indicators inform without manipulating, offering realism without despair.

9. Conclusion: The Meaning of the Mundane

Pizza orders near the Pentagon are not intelligence.

They are residue—the human trace left by institutions under pressure.

Their significance lies not in what they reveal about policy, but in what they reveal about power as a human process.

For those watching history unfold from positions of vulnerability, that distinction can be the difference between paralysis and measured hope.