Executive summary

Radio stations change or shutter formats when revenue, costs, and audience reach fall out of balance. In mid-2025 Portland lost “Bella 105” (Hot AC) when Audacy flipped 105.1 FM to a simulcast of sports “1080 The Fan,” and The Dalles’ KACI (1300 AM/103.9 translator) dropped talk for country as “103.9 The Hawk,” adopting new calls KTDS. These moves reflect three macro pressures: (1) soft local ad markets and consolidation debt hangovers; (2) distribution risk—especially for AM—amid changing in-car listening; and (3) cost structures that favor talk/sports over music in some contexts but favor hit music over talk in others, depending on market size and sales execution. 

Local case studies

Portland (market #22): On July 22, 2025 Audacy launched “105.1 The Fan,” simulcasting KFXX 1080 AM and displacing Hot AC “Bella 105.” The bet: sports talk’s sponsorship and play-by-play adjacency can monetize better than middling music shares on a crowded FM dial. Audacy’s own release and local coverage highlight the shift’s intent to reach a wider audience on FM. 

The Dalles (Gorge): On Sept. 12, 2025 Bicoastal Media flipped KACI from conservative talk to country as “103.9 The Hawk,” changing calls to KTDS. Small-market talk often struggles to sell consistently; country can deliver broader, more buyable day-to-day cume for local retailers. 

These decisions arrived as Oregon outlets weighed uncertainty in public-media funding after the Corporation for Public Broadcasting announced it would shut down operations following loss of congressional support—raising risk for OPB and other stations that rely on CPB dollars. Even commercial operators read the same macro weather: lighter underwriting and fewer co-op dollars in the ecosystem dampen audience cross-promotion. 

The core economic pressures

Soft local ad demand & buyer flight to digital performance. BIA’s 2025 update projects U.S. local advertising at $169B, down ~2.4% YoY; analysts flag a tougher year for traditional media even as some radio digital extensions grow. When local budgets tighten, mid-tier formats with average ratings get squeezed first.  Industry balance sheets & consolidation aftershocks. Major groups restructured in 2024–2025; Audacy exited Chapter 11 after equitizing ~$1.6B in debt. Post-reorg, operators still re-optimize clusters toward formats that can support sales goals with fewer bodies (i.e., networked shows, syndication, or sports inventory).  Distribution risk—especially in cars and on AM. AM’s audience is impaired by interference and the trend (now facing a potential federal mandate reversal) of automakers omitting AM from EV dashboards. Congress advanced the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act in Sept. 2025, but until finalized and implemented, AM stations face elevated reach risk—pushing some to add FM simulcasts or flip formats to ones that can justify FM real estate.  Cost structures & rights. Music stations pay performance royalties; talk and sports pay more for talent/rights but can command sponsorship integrations (features, pre/post shows, live reads) that outperform straight :30/:60s. In sports markets, FM simulcasts can unlock new inventory and higher rates; in smaller towns, hit music (country/AC) can be cheaper to program than sustaining strong local talk. (General industry economics; see format-change tracking and trade analyses.)  Public media shock. With CPB’s shutdown announced for 2025, many Oregon noncommercial outlets face cuts—jeopardizing newsroom staffing, community events, and even carriage of NPR/PRI/Spanish-language content, all of which also ripple into the broader listening habit in a market. 

Which formats are most vulnerable (and why)

Standalone AM music formats (oldies, standards) – High vulnerability. Audio quality, reception issues, and car-dashboard risk reduce time-spent-listening and salability; many AMs either simulcast on FM translators or abandon music for spoken word.  Small-market local talk – Moderate to high vulnerability. Expensive to execute well (hosts, producers, sales alignment). Without consistent news/sports tentpoles or a robust local ad base, it’s often out-earned by broad-appeal music. The Dalles’ KACI→KTDS move illustrates a pivot toward sellable country reach.  Mid-pack music formats on crowded FMs (e.g., Hot AC in some metros) – Moderate vulnerability. Where multiple similar music brands split share, operators may redeploy an FM to sports/talk for sponsor-friendly inventory (Portland’s Bella→The Fan).  Public/community formats dependent on CPB or niche underwriting (classical, jazz, ethnic/community) – Vulnerability varies by brand strength. Strong stations can thrive (e.g., Portland’s KMHD jazz has leaned into digital/community and reported growth), but many smaller outlets face acute cuts in 2025.  Brokered/paid-time ethnic/religious – Lower direct vulnerability (time is prepaid) but exposed to sponsor churn if local economies soften; they can remain resilient during downturns relative to ratings-sold formats. (Industry-wide observation; see format-change trackers for persistence.)  Sports talk & play-by-play – Relatively resilient in sports-centric markets when tied to team rights or strong local shows. Portland’s shift to add an FM sports outlet—and the Trail Blazers’ renewed partnership with iHeart—show advertisers’ appetite for sports adjacency. 

Strategic implications for operators

Protect in-car reach. Add or maintain FM simulcasts/translators for AM brands and prepare dashboards/apps aggressively while AM-in-cars legislation plays out.  Sell integrations, not just spots. Sports and talk succeed on sponsorships, features, and talent endorsements; music succeeds when paired with digital extensions and promotions that deliver leads, not only GRPs. (Trade guidance and revenue outlooks.)  Right-size cost to market. In smaller markets, broad-appeal music with strong remotes and community presence can outperform resource-intensive talk. In metros, consider redeploying underperforming music sticks to sports/talk franchises that monetize better.  Public stations: diversify revenue. With CPB uncertainty, ramp up memberships, local underwriting, podcasts/events, and shared-services newsrooms. 

Conclusion

Portland’s flip of 105.1 to FM sports and The Dalles’ talk-to-country pivot are rational responses to tighter local ad markets, distribution risk on AM, and the search for formats with the best sales math. In 2025, the most fragile formats are those with high costs and weak, hard-to-sell reach (small-market talk, AM-only music) and those mid-pack music brands squeezed by crowded dials. The safest harbors tend to be FM sports/talk with strong local hooks, big-tent music in smaller towns, and noncommercial brands with diversified funding and community relevance.