Executive Summary

Hate-crime law is motive-driven. Federal civil-rights charges require proof of bias in a specific case. Rates can guide review capacity. Interracial crime rates (e.g., White-on-Black, Black-on-White) can be used as baselines to estimate how many cases merit federal screening each year. Sample numbers show the concept. Based on recent national surveys, both White-on-Black and Black-on-White incidents number in the tens of thousands annually, while proven hate crimes are only a small subset. Recommendation: Use rates to plan proportional review, while preserving incident-level evidence as the sole basis for prosecution.

I. National Data on Interracial Crime

BJS National Crime Victimization Survey (2018, 2021):

Total violent incidents: ~5 million annually. Approx. 60–65% intraracial, 35–40% interracial. Estimated interracial incidents annually: ~1.5–2.0 million.

Breakdown by perceived offender race (2018 NCVS):

White victims reporting Black offenders: ~16% of violent incidents against White victims (≈ 500,000–600,000). Black victims reporting White offenders: ~10% of violent incidents against Black victims (≈ 100,000–150,000).

FBI Hate Crime Statistics (2022):

Total reported hate-crime incidents: ~11,600. Race/ethnicity/ancestry bias: ~6,700 incidents. Anti-Black bias: ~3,300 incidents. Anti-White bias: ~1,100 incidents.

Note: Hate crimes are a fraction of overall interracial incidents because most violent crimes are not motivated by race.

II. Sample Numbers for Baseline Review

Imagine DOJ sets review goals proportional to estimated interracial violent incidents:

Step 1: National baseline. Assume ~700,000 White-on-Black and Black-on-White violent incidents annually. Step 2: Screen a sample. Suppose DOJ aims to review ~0.5% of these for potential bias indicators. That yields ~3,500 annual screenings. Step 3: Proportional allocation. If NCVS estimates suggest ~500,000 Black-on-White and ~150,000 White-on-Black incidents in a given year, then: Black-on-White review pool ≈ 2,500 cases White-on-Black review pool ≈ 750 cases Step 4: Filter by evidence. Of screened cases, perhaps 5–10% contain evidence of racial bias strong enough for federal consideration. That would leave ~175–350 potential federal cases annually.

III. Implications of Numbers-Based Baseline

Parity. Both directions of interracial crime are proportionally represented. Efficiency. DOJ can forecast staffing and training needs around 3,000–4,000 case screenings per year. Clarity. Public understands that review ≠ prosecution; motive still rules prosecutions.

IV. Recommendations

Set annual review targets. Calibrate them to NCVS/UCR estimates of interracial crime volume. Report screening vs. charging. Publish separate tallies to show transparency. Maintain evidence focus. Reiterate that prosecutions require direct or circumstantial proof of bias. Invest in local evidence capture. Ensure police reports preserve indicators (statements, symbols, digital traces) to support federal screening.

V. Conclusion

Sample numbers drawn from national data show how rates of interracial crime can serve as baselines for federal case review capacity without dictating charging decisions. This model preserves constitutional protections, ensures proportional attention to all communities, and strengthens public trust in civil-rights enforcement.